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Titans playoff chances

Titans playoff chances

Titans playoff chances: 2%

The Titans (1-5) make the playoffs in 2% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish about 4.7-12.3 on average. A win over the Browns in Week 7 would put them at 4%; a loss, 1%.

Tennessee Titans · 1-5

Make the playoffs
2%
Win the AFC South
1%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
<1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
4.7-12.3

Week 7: vs. the Browns

With a win4%
With a loss1%

The model gives the Titans a 41% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed<1%
No. 4 seed1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)1%
Miss the playoffs98%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Browns40%
Wk 8at Bengals24%
Wk 10vs. Jaguars26%
Wk 11at Cowboys34%
Wk 12at Jaguars19%
Wk 13vs. Commanders51%
Wk 14at Lions26%
Wk 15vs. Colts46%
Wk 16at Raiders28%
Wk 17vs. Steelers34%
Wk 18at Texans30%

The AFC South race

Jaguars4-2Div.78%Playoffs86%
Texans2-4Div.14%Playoffs25%
Colts2-4Div.6%Playoffs11%
Titans1-5Div.1%Playoffs2%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Titans' chances of making the playoffs?

The Titans (1-5) make the playoffs in 2% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish about 4.7-12.3 on average. A win over the Browns in Week 7 would put them at 4%; a loss, 1%.

Can the Titans still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in <1%.

How much does the Titans' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 4%; lose and it is 1%. The model gives them a 41% chance to win it.