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Raiders playoff chances

Raiders playoff chances

Raiders playoff chances: 37%

The Raiders (3-3) make the playoffs in 37% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 8.8-8.2 on average. A win over the Rams in Week 7 would put them at 46%; a loss, 24%.

Las Vegas Raiders · 3-3

Make the playoffs
37%
Win the AFC West
8%
No. 1 seed and the bye
1%
Reach the Super Bowl
3%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
8.8-8.2

Week 7: vs. the Rams

With a win46%
With a loss24%

The model gives the Raiders a 59% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Raiders fans should root for in Week 7

The Falcons over the 49ers39% vs 36%
The Titans over the Browns39% vs 36%
The Vikings over the Colts38% vs 35%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed1%
No. 2 seed2%
No. 3 seed2%
No. 4 seed3%
No. 5 seed (wild card)9%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)10%
Miss the playoffs63%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Rams59%
Wk 8at Jets48%
Wk 9at 49ers32%
Wk 10vs. Seahawks51%
Wk 11at Broncos48%
Wk 12at Browns49%
Wk 14vs. Chargers73%
Wk 15vs. Broncos57%
Wk 16vs. Titans72%
Wk 17at Cardinals62%
Wk 18at Chiefs32%

The AFC West race

Chiefs5-0Div.79%Playoffs93%
Broncos4-2Div.13%Playoffs49%
Raiders3-3Div.8%Playoffs37%
Chargers0-6Div.<1%Playoffs<1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Raiders' chances of making the playoffs?

The Raiders (3-3) make the playoffs in 37% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 8.8-8.2 on average. A win over the Rams in Week 7 would put them at 46%; a loss, 24%.

Can the Raiders still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 3%.

How much does the Raiders' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 46%; lose and it is 24%. The model gives them a 59% chance to win it.

Who should Raiders fans root for this week?

The Falcons in 49ers at Falcons; the Titans in Browns at Titans; the Vikings in Colts at Vikings.