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Giants playoff chances

Giants playoff chances

Giants playoff chances: 48%

The Giants (3-2-1) make the playoffs in 48% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 43% of the time and finish about 7.8-8.2 on average. A win at the Texans in Week 7 would put them at 63%; a loss, 38%.

New York Giants · 3-2-1

Make the playoffs
48%
Win the NFC East
43%
No. 1 seed and the bye
1%
Reach the Super Bowl
3%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.8-8.2

Week 7: at the Texans

With a win63%
With a loss38%

The model gives the Giants a 40% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Giants fans should root for in Week 7

The Patriots at the Bears49% vs 47%
The Saints over the Steelers49% vs 47%
The Eagles over the Cowboys49% vs 47%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed1%
No. 2 seed3%
No. 3 seed15%
No. 4 seed24%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs52%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Texans38%
Wk 9at Eagles48%
Wk 10vs. Commanders60%
Wk 11vs. Jaguars33%
Wk 12at Colts45%
Wk 13vs. 49ers31%
Wk 14at Seahawks32%
Wk 15vs. Browns48%
Wk 16at Lions33%
Wk 17at Cowboys42%
Wk 18vs. Eagles57%

The NFC East race

Giants3-2-1Div.43%Playoffs48%
Cowboys2-4Div.30%Playoffs35%
Eagles2-4Div.19%Playoffs22%
Commanders1-4-1Div.8%Playoffs11%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Giants' chances of making the playoffs?

The Giants (3-2-1) make the playoffs in 48% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 43% of the time and finish about 7.8-8.2 on average. A win at the Texans in Week 7 would put them at 63%; a loss, 38%.

Can the Giants still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 3%.

How much does the Giants' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 63%; lose and it is 38%. The model gives them a 40% chance to win it.

Who should Giants fans root for this week?

The Patriots in Patriots at Bears; the Saints in Steelers at Saints; the Eagles in Cowboys at Eagles.