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Chiefs playoff chances

Chiefs playoff chances

Chiefs playoff chances: 93%

The Chiefs (5-0) make the playoffs in 93% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 79% of the time and finish about 12.5-4.5 on average. A win at the Seahawks in Week 7 would put them at 97%; a loss, 88%.

Kansas City Chiefs · 5-0

Make the playoffs
93%
Win the AFC West
79%
No. 1 seed and the bye
41%
Reach the Super Bowl
25%
Win the Super Bowl
13%
Average final record
12.5-4.5

Week 7: at the Seahawks

With a win97%
With a loss88%

The model gives the Chiefs a 56% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Chiefs fans should root for in Week 7

The Vikings over the Colts94% vs 92%
The Rams at the Raiders94% vs 93%
The Giants at the Texans94% vs 93%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed41%
No. 2 seed18%
No. 3 seed13%
No. 4 seed8%
No. 5 seed (wild card)6%
No. 6 seed (wild card)4%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs7%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Seahawks56%
Wk 8at Broncos61%
Wk 9vs. Jets70%
Wk 10at Falcons59%
Wk 11vs. Cardinals81%
Wk 12at Bills53%
Wk 13at Rams64%
Wk 14at Bengals54%
Wk 15vs. Patriots59%
Wk 16vs. 49ers54%
Wk 17at Chargers77%
Wk 18vs. Raiders68%

The AFC West race

Chiefs5-0Div.79%Playoffs93%
Broncos4-2Div.13%Playoffs49%
Raiders3-3Div.8%Playoffs37%
Chargers0-6Div.<1%Playoffs<1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Chiefs' chances of making the playoffs?

The Chiefs (5-0) make the playoffs in 93% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 79% of the time and finish about 12.5-4.5 on average. A win at the Seahawks in Week 7 would put them at 97%; a loss, 88%.

Can the Chiefs still win the Super Bowl?

In 13% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 25%.

How much does the Chiefs' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 97%; lose and it is 88%. The model gives them a 56% chance to win it.

Who should Chiefs fans root for this week?

The Vikings in Colts at Vikings; the Rams in Rams at Raiders; the Giants in Giants at Texans.