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Packers playoff chances

Packers playoff chances

Packers playoff chances: 57%

The Packers (4-2) make the playoffs in 57% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 9% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Lions in Week 7 would put them at 75%; a loss, 43%.

Green Bay Packers · 4-2

Make the playoffs
57%
Win the NFC North
9%
No. 1 seed and the bye
2%
Reach the Super Bowl
5%
Win the Super Bowl
2%
Average final record
9.4-7.6

Week 7: at the Lions

With a win75%
With a loss43%

The model gives the Packers a 43% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Packers fans should root for in Week 7

The Chiefs at the Seahawks59% vs 54%
The Patriots at the Bears59% vs 55%
The Buccaneers at the Panthers59% vs 56%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed2%
No. 2 seed5%
No. 3 seed1%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)16%
No. 6 seed (wild card)17%
No. 7 seed (wild card)14%
Miss the playoffs43%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Lions43%
Wk 8vs. Panthers50%
Wk 9at Patriots36%
Wk 10vs. Vikings41%
Wk 12at Rams50%
Wk 13at Saints54%
Wk 14vs. Bills48%
Wk 15vs. Dolphins70%
Wk 16at Bears35%
Wk 17vs. Texans57%
Wk 18vs. Lions52%

The NFC North race

Vikings5-0Div.63%Playoffs94%
Bears4-2Div.16%Playoffs75%
Lions3-2Div.12%Playoffs55%
Packers4-2Div.9%Playoffs57%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Packers' chances of making the playoffs?

The Packers (4-2) make the playoffs in 57% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 9% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Lions in Week 7 would put them at 75%; a loss, 43%.

Can the Packers still win the Super Bowl?

In 2% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 5%.

How much does the Packers' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 75%; lose and it is 43%. The model gives them a 43% chance to win it.

Who should Packers fans root for this week?

The Chiefs in Chiefs at Seahawks; the Patriots in Patriots at Bears; the Buccaneers in Buccaneers at Panthers.