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Lions playoff chances

Lions playoff chances

Lions playoff chances: 55%

The Lions (3-2) make the playoffs in 55% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish about 9.3-7.7 on average. A win over the Packers in Week 7 would put them at 70%; a loss, 36%.

Detroit Lions · 3-2

Make the playoffs
55%
Win the NFC North
12%
No. 1 seed and the bye
3%
Reach the Super Bowl
7%
Win the Super Bowl
3%
Average final record
9.3-7.7

Week 7: vs. the Packers

With a win70%
With a loss36%

The model gives the Lions a 57% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Lions fans should root for in Week 7

The Patriots at the Bears57% vs 54%
The 49ers at the Falcons56% vs 53%
The Colts at the Vikings57% vs 55%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed3%
No. 2 seed6%
No. 3 seed3%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)15%
No. 6 seed (wild card)14%
No. 7 seed (wild card)13%
Miss the playoffs45%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Packers57%
Wk 8vs. Vikings43%
Wk 9at Dolphins65%
Wk 10vs. Patriots43%
Wk 11vs. Buccaneers63%
Wk 12vs. Bears46%
Wk 13at Falcons48%
Wk 14vs. Titans74%
Wk 15at Vikings35%
Wk 16vs. Giants67%
Wk 17at Bears38%
Wk 18at Packers48%

The NFC North race

Vikings5-0Div.63%Playoffs94%
Bears4-2Div.16%Playoffs75%
Lions3-2Div.12%Playoffs55%
Packers4-2Div.9%Playoffs57%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Lions' chances of making the playoffs?

The Lions (3-2) make the playoffs in 55% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish about 9.3-7.7 on average. A win over the Packers in Week 7 would put them at 70%; a loss, 36%.

Can the Lions still win the Super Bowl?

In 3% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 7%.

How much does the Lions' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 70%; lose and it is 36%. The model gives them a 57% chance to win it.

Who should Lions fans root for this week?

The Patriots in Patriots at Bears; the 49ers in 49ers at Falcons; the Colts in Colts at Vikings.