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Broncos playoff chances

Broncos playoff chances

Broncos playoff chances: 49%

The Broncos (4-2) make the playoffs in 49% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 13% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Cardinals in Week 7 would put them at 59%; a loss, 35%.

Denver Broncos · 4-2

Make the playoffs
49%
Win the AFC West
13%
No. 1 seed and the bye
3%
Reach the Super Bowl
4%
Win the Super Bowl
2%
Average final record
9.4-7.6

Week 7: at the Cardinals

With a win59%
With a loss35%

The model gives the Broncos a 59% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Broncos fans should root for in Week 7

The Rams at the Raiders52% vs 47%
The Saints over the Steelers51% vs 48%
The Seahawks over the Chiefs50% vs 48%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed3%
No. 2 seed3%
No. 3 seed3%
No. 4 seed2%
No. 5 seed (wild card)14%
No. 6 seed (wild card)12%
No. 7 seed (wild card)11%
Miss the playoffs51%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Cardinals60%
Wk 8vs. Chiefs39%
Wk 9at Panthers39%
Wk 11vs. Raiders52%
Wk 12at Steelers42%
Wk 13vs. Dolphins68%
Wk 14at Jets46%
Wk 15at Raiders43%
Wk 16vs. Bills46%
Wk 17at Patriots34%
Wk 18vs. Chargers71%

The AFC West race

Chiefs5-0Div.79%Playoffs93%
Broncos4-2Div.13%Playoffs49%
Raiders3-3Div.8%Playoffs37%
Chargers0-6Div.<1%Playoffs<1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs?

The Broncos (4-2) make the playoffs in 49% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 13% of the time and finish about 9.4-7.6 on average. A win at the Cardinals in Week 7 would put them at 59%; a loss, 35%.

Can the Broncos still win the Super Bowl?

In 2% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 4%.

How much does the Broncos' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 59%; lose and it is 35%. The model gives them a 59% chance to win it.

Who should Broncos fans root for this week?

The Rams in Rams at Raiders; the Saints in Steelers at Saints; the Seahawks in Chiefs at Seahawks.