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Bills playoff chances

Bills playoff chances

Bills playoff chances: 79%

The Bills (5-1) make the playoffs in 79% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 47% of the time and finish about 11.0-6.0 on average. A win over the Ravens in Week 8 would put them at 89%; a loss, 66%.

Buffalo Bills · 5-1

Make the playoffs
79%
Win the AFC East
47%
No. 1 seed and the bye
14%
Reach the Super Bowl
11%
Win the Super Bowl
5%
Average final record
11.0-6.0

Week 8: vs. the Ravens

With a win89%
With a loss66%

The model gives the Bills a 58% chance to win on Sun, Nov 1.

Who Bills fans should root for in Week 7

The Cardinals over the Broncos81% vs 78%
The Saints over the Steelers81% vs 78%
The Titans over the Browns80% vs 79%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed14%
No. 2 seed13%
No. 3 seed12%
No. 4 seed8%
No. 5 seed (wild card)15%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)8%
Miss the playoffs21%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 8vs. Ravens58%
Wk 9at Vikings38%
Wk 10at Jets55%
Wk 11vs. Dolphins75%
Wk 12vs. Chiefs47%
Wk 13at Patriots42%
Wk 14at Packers52%
Wk 15vs. Bears50%
Wk 16at Broncos54%
Wk 17at Dolphins68%
Wk 18vs. Jets63%

The AFC East race

Bills5-1Div.47%Playoffs79%
Patriots4-2Div.46%Playoffs78%
Jets2-4Div.7%Playoffs22%
Dolphins0-5Div.1%Playoffs1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Bills' chances of making the playoffs?

The Bills (5-1) make the playoffs in 79% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 47% of the time and finish about 11.0-6.0 on average. A win over the Ravens in Week 8 would put them at 89%; a loss, 66%.

Can the Bills still win the Super Bowl?

In 5% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 11%.

How much does the Bills' next game matter?

Win in Week 8 and their playoff chance is 89%; lose and it is 66%. The model gives them a 58% chance to win it.

Who should Bills fans root for this week?

The Cardinals in Broncos at Cardinals; the Saints in Steelers at Saints; the Titans in Browns at Titans.