NFL playoff machine 2026
Pick the winners. Watch the odds move.
179 regular-season games are left. Choose a winner in any of them and every team's playoff, division and bye chances re-run on the spot, with the NFL's seeding and tiebreakers. Without picks it shows the same forecast as the playoff odds page.
AFC
Chiefs5-093%78%39%
Jaguars4-286%79%13%
Bills5-180%48%16%
Patriots4-278%47%11%
Steelers4-258%26%5%
Bengals3-258%29%6%
Ravens4-254%24%4%
Broncos4-249%13%4%
Browns4-247%21%2%
Raiders3-338%9%1%
Texans2-426%13%<1%
Jets2-421%5%<1%
Colts2-411%7%<1%
Titans1-52%1%<1%
Dolphins0-52%<1%<1%
Chargers0-6<1%<1%<1%NFC
49ers6-099%91%48%
Vikings5-094%64%34%
Bears4-274%16%5%
Panthers3-270%62%4%
Packers4-259%9%2%
Lions3-254%11%3%
Seahawks3-350%7%1%
Giants3-2-145%39%1%
Cowboys2-435%31%<1%
Falcons2-430%18%<1%
Eagles2-425%21%<1%
Rams2-420%1%<1%
Saints2-416%11%<1%
Buccaneers1-512%9%<1%
Commanders1-4-111%9%<1%
Cardinals2-47%<1%<1%Pick the winners
Records above count your picks.Tap a team to make it the winner; tap again to let the model decide. Every change re-plays the season 2,000 times, so a number can wobble by a point or two.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. For the full numbers with no picks, including Super Bowl chances, see the NFL playoff odds.
Questions
How does the NFL playoff machine work?
Tap a team in any game left to make it the winner. Every change re-plays the rest of the season 2,000 times with your picks fixed and the other games left to the model, then seeds each conference the NFL's way.
What decides the games I don't pick?
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Can I share my scenario?
Yes. Your picks are saved in the page's address, so copying the link shares the exact scenario.