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Cowboys playoff chances

Cowboys playoff chances

Cowboys playoff chances: 35%

The Cowboys (2-4) make the playoffs in 35% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 30% of the time and finish about 7.6-9.4 on average. A win at the Eagles in Week 7 would put them at 49%; a loss, 20%.

Dallas Cowboys · 2-4

Make the playoffs
35%
Win the NFC East
30%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
2%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.6-9.4

Week 7: at the Eagles

With a win49%
With a loss20%

The model gives the Cowboys a 52% chance to win on Mon, Oct 26.

Who Cowboys fans should root for in Week 7

The Texans over the Giants38% vs 29%
The Raiders over the Rams36% vs 33%
The Steelers at the Saints36% vs 33%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed2%
No. 3 seed8%
No. 4 seed20%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs65%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Eagles52%
Wk 8vs. Cardinals64%
Wk 9at Colts49%
Wk 10vs. 49ers35%
Wk 11vs. Titans66%
Wk 12vs. Eagles61%
Wk 13at Seahawks36%
Wk 15at Rams44%
Wk 16vs. Jaguars37%
Wk 17vs. Giants58%
Wk 18at Commanders55%

The NFC East race

Giants3-2-1Div.43%Playoffs48%
Cowboys2-4Div.30%Playoffs35%
Eagles2-4Div.19%Playoffs22%
Commanders1-4-1Div.8%Playoffs11%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs?

The Cowboys (2-4) make the playoffs in 35% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 30% of the time and finish about 7.6-9.4 on average. A win at the Eagles in Week 7 would put them at 49%; a loss, 20%.

Can the Cowboys still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 2%.

How much does the Cowboys' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 49%; lose and it is 20%. The model gives them a 52% chance to win it.

Who should Cowboys fans root for this week?

The Texans in Giants at Texans; the Raiders in Rams at Raiders; the Steelers in Steelers at Saints.