My teams
Buccaneers playoff chances

Buccaneers playoff chances

Buccaneers playoff chances: 12%

The Buccaneers (1-5) make the playoffs in 12% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 5.9-11.1 on average. A win at the Panthers in Week 7 would put them at 24%; a loss, 6%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1-5

Make the playoffs
12%
Win the NFC South
8%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
5.9-11.1

Week 7: at the Panthers

With a win24%
With a loss6%

The model gives the Buccaneers a 36% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Buccaneers fans should root for in Week 7

The 49ers at the Falcons13% vs 11%
The Raiders over the Rams13% vs 11%
The Cowboys at the Eagles13% vs 12%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed4%
No. 4 seed5%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)2%
Miss the playoffs88%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Panthers35%
Wk 8vs. Falcons47%
Wk 9at Bears29%
Wk 11at Lions37%
Wk 12vs. Panthers43%
Wk 13vs. Chargers67%
Wk 14at Ravens37%
Wk 15vs. Saints56%
Wk 16at Falcons39%
Wk 17vs. Rams53%
Wk 18at Saints47%

The NFC South race

Panthers3-2Div.62%Playoffs70%
Falcons2-4Div.18%Playoffs30%
Saints2-4Div.12%Playoffs17%
Buccaneers1-5Div.8%Playoffs12%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Buccaneers' chances of making the playoffs?

The Buccaneers (1-5) make the playoffs in 12% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 5.9-11.1 on average. A win at the Panthers in Week 7 would put them at 24%; a loss, 6%.

Can the Buccaneers still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 1%.

How much does the Buccaneers' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 24%; lose and it is 6%. The model gives them a 36% chance to win it.

Who should Buccaneers fans root for this week?

The 49ers in 49ers at Falcons; the Raiders in Rams at Raiders; the Cowboys in Cowboys at Eagles.