My teams
Patriots playoff chances

Patriots playoff chances

Patriots playoff chances: 78%

The Patriots (4-2) make the playoffs in 78% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 46% of the time and finish about 10.5-6.5 on average. A win at the Bears in Week 7 would put them at 88%; a loss, 70%.

New England Patriots · 4-2

Make the playoffs
78%
Win the AFC East
46%
No. 1 seed and the bye
10%
Reach the Super Bowl
12%
Win the Super Bowl
6%
Average final record
10.5-6.5

Week 7: at the Bears

With a win88%
With a loss70%

The model gives the Patriots a 45% chance to win on Thu, Oct 22.

Who Patriots fans should root for in Week 7

The Cardinals over the Broncos80% vs 77%
The Titans over the Browns79% vs 77%
The 49ers at the Falcons79% vs 77%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed10%
No. 2 seed12%
No. 3 seed13%
No. 4 seed12%
No. 5 seed (wild card)14%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)8%
Miss the playoffs22%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Bears44%
Wk 8at Dolphins71%
Wk 9vs. Packers64%
Wk 10at Lions57%
Wk 12at Chargers74%
Wk 13vs. Bills58%
Wk 14vs. Vikings50%
Wk 15at Chiefs41%
Wk 16at Jets58%
Wk 17vs. Broncos66%
Wk 18vs. Dolphins78%

The AFC East race

Bills5-1Div.47%Playoffs79%
Patriots4-2Div.46%Playoffs78%
Jets2-4Div.7%Playoffs22%
Dolphins0-5Div.1%Playoffs1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Patriots' chances of making the playoffs?

The Patriots (4-2) make the playoffs in 78% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 46% of the time and finish about 10.5-6.5 on average. A win at the Bears in Week 7 would put them at 88%; a loss, 70%.

Can the Patriots still win the Super Bowl?

In 6% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 12%.

How much does the Patriots' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 88%; lose and it is 70%. The model gives them a 45% chance to win it.

Who should Patriots fans root for this week?

The Cardinals in Broncos at Cardinals; the Titans in Browns at Titans; the 49ers in 49ers at Falcons.