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Commanders playoff chances

Commanders playoff chances

Commanders playoff chances: 11%

The Commanders (1-4-1) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 5.4-10.6 on average. A win over the Eagles in Week 8 would put them at 17%; a loss, 4%.

Washington Commanders · 1-4-1

Make the playoffs
11%
Win the NFC East
8%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
<1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
5.4-10.6

Week 8: vs. the Eagles

With a win17%
With a loss4%

The model gives the Commanders a 52% chance to win on Sun, Nov 1.

Who Commanders fans should root for in Week 7

The Texans over the Giants11% vs 10%
The 49ers at the Falcons11% vs 10%
The Ravens over the Bengals11% vs 10%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed2%
No. 4 seed6%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)1%
Miss the playoffs89%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 8vs. Eagles51%
Wk 9vs. Rams44%
Wk 10at Giants40%
Wk 11vs. Bengals34%
Wk 12at Cardinals46%
Wk 13at Titans49%
Wk 14vs. Texans42%
Wk 15vs. Falcons39%
Wk 16at Vikings20%
Wk 17at Jaguars21%
Wk 18vs. Cowboys45%

The NFC East race

Giants3-2-1Div.43%Playoffs48%
Cowboys2-4Div.30%Playoffs35%
Eagles2-4Div.19%Playoffs22%
Commanders1-4-1Div.8%Playoffs11%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Commanders' chances of making the playoffs?

The Commanders (1-4-1) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 8% of the time and finish about 5.4-10.6 on average. A win over the Eagles in Week 8 would put them at 17%; a loss, 4%.

Can the Commanders still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in <1%.

How much does the Commanders' next game matter?

Win in Week 8 and their playoff chance is 17%; lose and it is 4%. The model gives them a 52% chance to win it.

Who should Commanders fans root for this week?

The Texans in Giants at Texans; the 49ers in 49ers at Falcons; the Ravens in Bengals at Ravens.