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Chargers playoff chances

Chargers playoff chances

Chargers playoff chances: <1%

The Chargers (0-6) make the playoffs in <1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish about 3.5-13.5 on average.

Los Angeles Chargers · 0-6

Make the playoffs
<1%
Win the AFC West
<1%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
<1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
3.5-13.5

Week 8: at the Rams

With a win1%
With a loss<1%

The model gives the Chargers a 33% chance to win on Sun, Nov 1.

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed<1%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)<1%
Miss the playoffs>99%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 8at Rams31%
Wk 9vs. Texans37%
Wk 10at Ravens25%
Wk 11vs. Jets37%
Wk 12vs. Patriots26%
Wk 13at Buccaneers33%
Wk 14at Raiders27%
Wk 15vs. 49ers23%
Wk 16at Dolphins42%
Wk 17vs. Chiefs23%
Wk 18at Broncos29%

The AFC West race

Chiefs5-0Div.79%Playoffs93%
Broncos4-2Div.13%Playoffs49%
Raiders3-3Div.8%Playoffs37%
Chargers0-6Div.<1%Playoffs<1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Chargers' chances of making the playoffs?

The Chargers (0-6) make the playoffs in <1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish about 3.5-13.5 on average.

Can the Chargers still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in <1%.

How much does the Chargers' next game matter?

Win in Week 8 and their playoff chance is 1%; lose and it is <1%. The model gives them a 33% chance to win it.