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Dolphins playoff chances

Dolphins playoff chances

Dolphins playoff chances: 1%

The Dolphins (0-5) make the playoffs in 1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish about 4.2-12.8 on average. A win at the Jets in Week 7 would put them at 3%; a loss, <1%.

Miami Dolphins · 0-5

Make the playoffs
1%
Win the AFC East
1%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
<1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
4.2-12.8

Week 7: at the Jets

With a win3%
With a loss<1%

The model gives the Dolphins a 33% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed<1%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)<1%
Miss the playoffs99%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Jets32%
Wk 8vs. Patriots29%
Wk 9vs. Lions35%
Wk 10at Colts39%
Wk 11at Bills25%
Wk 12vs. Jets41%
Wk 13at Broncos32%
Wk 14vs. Bears28%
Wk 15at Packers30%
Wk 16vs. Chargers58%
Wk 17vs. Bills32%
Wk 18at Patriots22%

The AFC East race

Bills5-1Div.47%Playoffs79%
Patriots4-2Div.46%Playoffs78%
Jets2-4Div.7%Playoffs22%
Dolphins0-5Div.1%Playoffs1%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Dolphins' chances of making the playoffs?

The Dolphins (0-5) make the playoffs in 1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish about 4.2-12.8 on average. A win at the Jets in Week 7 would put them at 3%; a loss, <1%.

Can the Dolphins still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in <1%.

How much does the Dolphins' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 3%; lose and it is <1%. The model gives them a 33% chance to win it.