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Panthers playoff chances

Panthers playoff chances

Panthers playoff chances: 70%

The Panthers (3-2) make the playoffs in 70% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 62% of the time and finish about 9.6-7.4 on average. A win over the Buccaneers in Week 7 would put them at 80%; a loss, 53%.

Carolina Panthers · 3-2

Make the playoffs
70%
Win the NFC South
62%
No. 1 seed and the bye
5%
Reach the Super Bowl
9%
Win the Super Bowl
4%
Average final record
9.6-7.4

Week 7: vs. the Buccaneers

With a win80%
With a loss53%

The model gives the Panthers a 64% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Panthers fans should root for in Week 7

The 49ers at the Falcons73% vs 66%
The Steelers at the Saints72% vs 67%
The Rams at the Raiders71% vs 69%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed5%
No. 2 seed11%
No. 3 seed31%
No. 4 seed15%
No. 5 seed (wild card)1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)2%
No. 7 seed (wild card)4%
Miss the playoffs30%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Buccaneers65%
Wk 8at Packers50%
Wk 9vs. Broncos61%
Wk 10at Saints58%
Wk 11vs. Ravens57%
Wk 12at Buccaneers57%
Wk 13at Vikings37%
Wk 14vs. Saints67%
Wk 15vs. Bengals54%
Wk 16at Steelers48%
Wk 17vs. Seahawks56%
Wk 18vs. Falcons59%

The NFC South race

Panthers3-2Div.62%Playoffs70%
Falcons2-4Div.18%Playoffs30%
Saints2-4Div.12%Playoffs17%
Buccaneers1-5Div.8%Playoffs12%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Panthers' chances of making the playoffs?

The Panthers (3-2) make the playoffs in 70% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 62% of the time and finish about 9.6-7.4 on average. A win over the Buccaneers in Week 7 would put them at 80%; a loss, 53%.

Can the Panthers still win the Super Bowl?

In 4% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 9%.

How much does the Panthers' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 80%; lose and it is 53%. The model gives them a 64% chance to win it.

Who should Panthers fans root for this week?

The 49ers in 49ers at Falcons; the Steelers in Steelers at Saints; the Rams in Rams at Raiders.