49ers playoff chances
49ers playoff chances: 98%
The 49ers (6-0) make the playoffs in 98% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 90% of the time and finish about 13.1-3.9 on average. A win at the Falcons in Week 7 would put them at 99%; a loss, 96%.
San Francisco 49ers · 6-0
Week 7: at the Falcons
The model gives the 49ers a 58% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.
Where they finish
Games left and the chance of each
at FalconsSun, Oct 2559%
vs. RaidersSun, Nov 868%
at CowboysSun, Nov 1565%
vs. VikingsSun, Nov 2250%
vs. SeahawksSun, Nov 2964%
at GiantsSun, Dec 669%
vs. RamsSun, Dec 1372%
at ChargersThu, Dec 1777%
at ChiefsSun, Dec 2746%
vs. EaglesSun, Jan 378%
at CardinalsSun, Jan 1074%The NFC West race
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.
Use these numbers
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Questions
What are the 49ers' chances of making the playoffs?
The 49ers (6-0) make the playoffs in 98% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 90% of the time and finish about 13.1-3.9 on average. A win at the Falcons in Week 7 would put them at 99%; a loss, 96%.
Can the 49ers still win the Super Bowl?
In 13% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 25%.
How much does the 49ers' next game matter?
Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 99%; lose and it is 96%. The model gives them a 58% chance to win it.