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Colts playoff chances

Colts playoff chances

Colts playoff chances: 11%

The Colts (2-4) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 6% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win at the Vikings in Week 7 would put them at 22%; a loss, 7%.

Indianapolis Colts · 2-4

Make the playoffs
11%
Win the AFC South
6%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
1%
Win the Super Bowl
<1%
Average final record
6.8-10.2

Week 7: at the Vikings

With a win22%
With a loss7%

The model gives the Colts a 25% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Colts fans should root for in Week 7

The Giants at the Texans12% vs 10%
The Ravens over the Bengals11% vs 10%
The Cardinals over the Broncos11% vs 10%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed<1%
No. 3 seed1%
No. 4 seed5%
No. 5 seed (wild card)<1%
No. 6 seed (wild card)1%
No. 7 seed (wild card)3%
Miss the playoffs89%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Vikings24%
Wk 8at Jaguars26%
Wk 9vs. Cowboys51%
Wk 10vs. Dolphins61%
Wk 11at Texans39%
Wk 12vs. Giants55%
Wk 14at Eagles48%
Wk 15at Titans54%
Wk 16vs. Bengals40%
Wk 17at Browns40%
Wk 18vs. Jaguars34%

The AFC South race

Jaguars4-2Div.78%Playoffs86%
Texans2-4Div.14%Playoffs25%
Colts2-4Div.6%Playoffs11%
Titans1-5Div.1%Playoffs2%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Colts' chances of making the playoffs?

The Colts (2-4) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 6% of the time and finish about 6.8-10.2 on average. A win at the Vikings in Week 7 would put them at 22%; a loss, 7%.

Can the Colts still win the Super Bowl?

In <1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 1%.

How much does the Colts' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 22%; lose and it is 7%. The model gives them a 25% chance to win it.

Who should Colts fans root for this week?

The Giants in Giants at Texans; the Ravens in Bengals at Ravens; the Cardinals in Broncos at Cardinals.