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Bengals playoff chances

Bengals playoff chances

Bengals playoff chances: 56%

The Bengals (3-2) make the playoffs in 56% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 27% of the time and finish about 9.9-7.1 on average. A win at the Ravens in Week 7 would put them at 72%; a loss, 41%.

Cincinnati Bengals · 3-2

Make the playoffs
56%
Win the AFC North
27%
No. 1 seed and the bye
6%
Reach the Super Bowl
8%
Win the Super Bowl
4%
Average final record
9.9-7.1

Week 7: at the Ravens

With a win72%
With a loss41%

The model gives the Bengals a 49% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Bengals fans should root for in Week 7

The Vikings over the Colts57% vs 54%
The Titans over the Browns59% vs 55%
The Saints over the Steelers58% vs 55%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed6%
No. 2 seed7%
No. 3 seed8%
No. 4 seed6%
No. 5 seed (wild card)9%
No. 6 seed (wild card)10%
No. 7 seed (wild card)10%
Miss the playoffs43%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Ravens48%
Wk 8vs. Titans76%
Wk 9at Falcons55%
Wk 10vs. Steelers58%
Wk 11at Commanders66%
Wk 12vs. Saints67%
Wk 13at Browns54%
Wk 14vs. Chiefs46%
Wk 15at Panthers46%
Wk 16at Colts60%
Wk 17vs. Ravens57%
Wk 18vs. Browns63%

The AFC North race

Bengals3-2Div.27%Playoffs56%
Steelers4-2Div.27%Playoffs57%
Ravens4-2Div.25%Playoffs55%
Browns4-2Div.21%Playoffs48%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs?

The Bengals (3-2) make the playoffs in 56% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 27% of the time and finish about 9.9-7.1 on average. A win at the Ravens in Week 7 would put them at 72%; a loss, 41%.

Can the Bengals still win the Super Bowl?

In 4% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 8%.

How much does the Bengals' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 72%; lose and it is 41%. The model gives them a 49% chance to win it.

Who should Bengals fans root for this week?

The Vikings in Colts at Vikings; the Titans in Browns at Titans; the Saints in Steelers at Saints.