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Rams playoff chances

Rams playoff chances

Rams playoff chances: 20%

The Rams (2-4) make the playoffs in 20% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 2% of the time and finish about 7.2-9.8 on average. A win at the Raiders in Week 7 would put them at 30%; a loss, 14%.

Los Angeles Rams · 2-4

Make the playoffs
20%
Win the NFC West
2%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
1%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.2-9.8

Week 7: at the Raiders

With a win30%
With a loss14%

The model gives the Rams a 41% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Rams fans should root for in Week 7

The Chiefs at the Seahawks21% vs 19%
The Broncos at the Cardinals21% vs 19%
The 49ers at the Falcons21% vs 19%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed1%
No. 3 seed<1%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)4%
No. 6 seed (wild card)7%
No. 7 seed (wild card)8%
Miss the playoffs80%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7at Raiders41%
Wk 8vs. Chargers69%
Wk 9at Commanders56%
Wk 10at Cardinals57%
Wk 12vs. Packers50%
Wk 13vs. Chiefs36%
Wk 14at 49ers28%
Wk 15vs. Cowboys56%
Wk 16at Seahawks37%
Wk 17at Buccaneers47%
Wk 18vs. Seahawks46%

The NFC West race

49ers6-0Div.90%Playoffs98%
Seahawks3-3Div.8%Playoffs50%
Rams2-4Div.2%Playoffs20%
Cardinals2-4Div.<1%Playoffs6%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Rams' chances of making the playoffs?

The Rams (2-4) make the playoffs in 20% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 2% of the time and finish about 7.2-9.8 on average. A win at the Raiders in Week 7 would put them at 30%; a loss, 14%.

Can the Rams still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 1%.

How much does the Rams' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 30%; lose and it is 14%. The model gives them a 41% chance to win it.

Who should Rams fans root for this week?

The Chiefs in Chiefs at Seahawks; the Broncos in Broncos at Cardinals; the 49ers in 49ers at Falcons.