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Bears playoff chances

Bears playoff chances

Bears playoff chances: 75%

The Bears (4-2) make the playoffs in 75% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 16% of the time and finish about 10.4-6.6 on average. A win over the Patriots in Week 7 would put them at 84%; a loss, 65%.

Chicago Bears · 4-2

Make the playoffs
75%
Win the NFC North
16%
No. 1 seed and the bye
5%
Reach the Super Bowl
12%
Win the Super Bowl
6%
Average final record
10.4-6.6

Week 7: vs. the Patriots

With a win84%
With a loss65%

The model gives the Bears a 55% chance to win on Thu, Oct 22.

Who Bears fans should root for in Week 7

The Chiefs at the Seahawks76% vs 73%
The Raiders over the Rams76% vs 73%
The Steelers at the Saints76% vs 74%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed5%
No. 2 seed9%
No. 3 seed2%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)26%
No. 6 seed (wild card)20%
No. 7 seed (wild card)14%
Miss the playoffs25%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Patriots56%
Wk 8at Seahawks53%
Wk 9vs. Buccaneers71%
Wk 11vs. Saints72%
Wk 12at Lions54%
Wk 13vs. Jaguars54%
Wk 14at Dolphins72%
Wk 15at Bills50%
Wk 16vs. Packers65%
Wk 17vs. Lions62%
Wk 18at Vikings42%

The NFC North race

Vikings5-0Div.63%Playoffs94%
Bears4-2Div.16%Playoffs75%
Lions3-2Div.12%Playoffs55%
Packers4-2Div.9%Playoffs57%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Bears' chances of making the playoffs?

The Bears (4-2) make the playoffs in 75% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 16% of the time and finish about 10.4-6.6 on average. A win over the Patriots in Week 7 would put them at 84%; a loss, 65%.

Can the Bears still win the Super Bowl?

In 6% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 12%.

How much does the Bears' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 84%; lose and it is 65%. The model gives them a 55% chance to win it.

Who should Bears fans root for this week?

The Chiefs in Chiefs at Seahawks; the Raiders in Rams at Raiders; the Steelers in Steelers at Saints.