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Vikings playoff chances

Vikings playoff chances

Vikings playoff chances: 94%

The Vikings (5-0) make the playoffs in 94% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 63% of the time and finish about 12.4-4.6 on average. A win over the Colts in Week 7 would put them at 96%; a loss, 87%.

Minnesota Vikings · 5-0

Make the playoffs
94%
Win the NFC North
63%
No. 1 seed and the bye
34%
Reach the Super Bowl
23%
Win the Super Bowl
12%
Average final record
12.4-4.6

Week 7: vs. the Colts

With a win96%
With a loss87%

The model gives the Vikings a 75% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Vikings fans should root for in Week 7

The Chiefs at the Seahawks95% vs 93%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed34%
No. 2 seed23%
No. 3 seed5%
No. 4 seed<1%
No. 5 seed (wild card)17%
No. 6 seed (wild card)9%
No. 7 seed (wild card)5%
Miss the playoffs6%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Colts76%
Wk 8at Lions57%
Wk 9vs. Bills62%
Wk 10at Packers59%
Wk 11at 49ers50%
Wk 12vs. Falcons67%
Wk 13vs. Panthers63%
Wk 14at Patriots50%
Wk 15vs. Lions65%
Wk 16vs. Commanders80%
Wk 17at Jets62%
Wk 18vs. Bears58%

The NFC North race

Vikings5-0Div.63%Playoffs94%
Bears4-2Div.16%Playoffs75%
Lions3-2Div.12%Playoffs55%
Packers4-2Div.9%Playoffs57%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Vikings' chances of making the playoffs?

The Vikings (5-0) make the playoffs in 94% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 63% of the time and finish about 12.4-4.6 on average. A win over the Colts in Week 7 would put them at 96%; a loss, 87%.

Can the Vikings still win the Super Bowl?

In 12% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 23%.

How much does the Vikings' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 96%; lose and it is 87%. The model gives them a 75% chance to win it.

Who should Vikings fans root for this week?

The Chiefs in Chiefs at Seahawks.