My teams
Texans playoff chances

Texans playoff chances

Texans playoff chances: 25%

The Texans (2-4) make the playoffs in 25% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 14% of the time and finish about 7.8-9.2 on average. A win over the Giants in Week 7 would put them at 33%; a loss, 14%.

Houston Texans · 2-4

Make the playoffs
25%
Win the AFC South
14%
No. 1 seed and the bye
<1%
Reach the Super Bowl
2%
Win the Super Bowl
1%
Average final record
7.8-9.2

Week 7: vs. the Giants

With a win33%
With a loss14%

The model gives the Texans a 60% chance to win on Sun, Oct 25.

Who Texans fans should root for in Week 7

The Vikings over the Colts26% vs 23%
The Dolphins at the Jets27% vs 25%
The Saints over the Steelers26% vs 24%

Where they finish

No. 1 seed<1%
No. 2 seed1%
No. 3 seed3%
No. 4 seed10%
No. 5 seed (wild card)2%
No. 6 seed (wild card)4%
No. 7 seed (wild card)6%
Miss the playoffs75%

Games left and the chance of each

Wk 7vs. Giants62%
Wk 9at Chargers63%
Wk 10at Browns46%
Wk 11vs. Colts61%
Wk 12vs. Ravens49%
Wk 13at Steelers41%
Wk 14at Commanders58%
Wk 15vs. Jaguars40%
Wk 16at Eagles55%
Wk 17at Packers43%
Wk 18vs. Titans70%

The AFC South race

Jaguars4-2Div.78%Playoffs86%
Texans2-4Div.14%Playoffs25%
Colts2-4Div.6%Playoffs11%
Titans1-5Div.1%Playoffs2%

Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played (margins capped at 21 points, 1.5 for home field, pulled toward average early in the year). The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the field is seeded the NFL's way and the playoffs are played out. Tiebreakers applied: head-to-head, division record and conference record; anything deeper is a coin flip. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market. Try other results in the playoff machine.

Use these numbers

Free to embed or quote with a link back. The table below updates itself every few hours. Download the CSV.

Questions

What are the Texans' chances of making the playoffs?

The Texans (2-4) make the playoffs in 25% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 14% of the time and finish about 7.8-9.2 on average. A win over the Giants in Week 7 would put them at 33%; a loss, 14%.

Can the Texans still win the Super Bowl?

In 1% of simulations. They reach the Super Bowl in 2%.

How much does the Texans' next game matter?

Win in Week 7 and their playoff chance is 33%; lose and it is 14%. The model gives them a 60% chance to win it.

Who should Texans fans root for this week?

The Vikings in Colts at Vikings; the Dolphins in Dolphins at Jets; the Saints in Steelers at Saints.