
All 32 teams get a page: last season’s results, who left in free agency, the draft class, and the schedule with a win probability on every game. Plus the projected 14-team bracket, division orders of finish, and where our number disagrees with the market.
NFC West · 3-14 in 2025Arizona Cardinals7-10 projected · SRS #25 · 73% returningMike LaFleur, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Atlanta Falcons8-9 projected · SRS #20 · 63% returningKevin Stefanski, Yr 1
AFC North · 8-9 in 2025Baltimore Ravens9-8 projected · SRS #13 · 81% returningJesse Minter, Yr 1
AFC East · 12-5 in 2025Buffalo Bills9-8 projected · SRS #8 · 70% returningJoe Brady, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Carolina Panthers8-9 projected · SRS #21 · 78% returningDave Canales, Yr 3
NFC North · 11-6 in 2025Chicago Bears8-9 projected · SRS #16 · 68% returningBen Johnson, Yr 2
AFC North · 6-11 in 2025Cincinnati Bengals8-9 projected · SRS #24 · 84% returningZac Taylor, Yr 8
AFC North · 5-12 in 2025Cleveland Browns7-10 projected · SRS #29 · 77% returningTodd Monken, Yr 1
NFC East · 7-9 in 2025Dallas Cowboys7-10 projected · SRS #23 · 79% returningBrian Schottenheimer, Yr 2
AFC West · 14-3 in 2025Denver Broncos9-8 projected · SRS #9 · 95% returningSean Payton, Yr 4
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Detroit Lions10-7 projected · SRS #10 · 76% returningDan Campbell, Yr 6
NFC North · 9-7 in 2025Green Bay Packers9-8 projected · SRS #15 · 73% returningMatt LaFleur, Yr 8
AFC South · 12-5 in 2025Houston Texans10-7 projected · SRS #4 · 87% returningDeMeco Ryans, Yr 4
AFC South · 8-9 in 2025Indianapolis Colts10-7 projected · SRS #7 · 66% returningShane Steichen, Yr 4
AFC South · 13-4 in 2025Jacksonville Jaguars10-7 projected · SRS #3 · 77% returningLiam Coen, Yr 2
AFC West · 6-11 in 2025Kansas City Chiefs9-8 projected · SRS #12 · 70% returningAndy Reid, Yr 14
AFC West · 3-14 in 2025Las Vegas Raiders6-11 projected · SRS #31 · 76% returningKlint Kubiak, Yr 1
AFC West · 11-6 in 2025Los Angeles Chargers8-9 projected · SRS #14 · 87% returningJim Harbaugh, Yr 3
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025Los Angeles Rams11-6 projected · SRS #2 · 89% returningSean McVay, Yr 10
AFC East · 7-10 in 2025Miami Dolphins7-10 projected · SRS #28 · 51% returningJeff Hafley, Yr 1
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Minnesota Vikings9-8 projected · SRS #18 · 85% returningKevin O’Connell, Yr 5
AFC East · 14-3 in 2025New England Patriots10-7 projected · SRS #6 · 76% returningMike Vrabel, Yr 2
NFC South · 6-11 in 2025New Orleans Saints8-9 projected · SRS #26 · 85% returningKellen Moore, Yr 2
NFC East · 4-13 in 2025New York Giants8-9 projected · SRS #22 · 68% returningJohn Harbaugh, Yr 1
AFC East · 3-14 in 2025New York Jets6-11 projected · SRS #32 · 62% returningAaron Glenn, Yr 2
NFC East · 11-6 in 2025Philadelphia Eagles9-8 projected · SRS #11 · 77% returningNick Sirianni, Yr 6
AFC North · 10-7 in 2025Pittsburgh Steelers9-8 projected · SRS #17 · 79% returningMike McCarthy, Yr 1
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025San Francisco 49ers10-7 projected · SRS #5 · 77% returningKyle Shanahan, Yr 10
NFC West · 14-3 in 2025Seattle Seahawks11-6 projected · SRS #1 · 86% returningMike Macdonald, Yr 3
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Tampa Bay Buccaneers9-8 projected · SRS #19 · 75% returningTodd Bowles, Yr 5
AFC South · 3-14 in 2025Tennessee Titans7-10 projected · SRS #30 · 74% returningRobert Saleh, Yr 1
NFC East · 5-12 in 2025Washington Commanders7-10 projected · SRS #27 · 66% returningDan Quinn, Yr 3NFC South · Kellen Moore, year 2 · 6-11 last season · No. 26 in our NFL ratings
Kellen Moore's defense got scored on cheaply at 13.3 yards allowed per point and his offense wasted yardage at 17.4 per point, yet the widening gap between New Orleans' 35.3% win rate and the 54.8% its yardage margin implies says 6-11 was the floor, not the ceiling, for 2026.
Can Kaden Elliss replace what Demario Davis gave this defense for years? Davis piled up 140 tackles last season, and no single arrival matches that raw volume, but Elliss joins after posting 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, an interception and 10 tackles for loss with Atlanta. That is a fuller stat line than what Tyree Wilson or Anfernee Jennings bring in, and it points to Elliss settling in as the new signal-caller at linebacker. Defensive returning production sits at just 77%, the lowest mark on this roster, so New Orleans is betting Elliss's experience covers more of that gap than any other single newcomer.
Nobody in the league gets a softer 2026 draw than the Saints, a fact that matters more than the 6-11 finish that preceded it. There is no signature road block, only a trio of real tests at Detroit, Baltimore and Chicago, none of which New Orleans is favored to win. Everything else is a coin flip or better, including thirteen true toss-ups against the likes of Tampa Bay, Carolina and Green Bay that will decide whether Kellen Moore's second year lands closer to nine wins or eleven. The projected 8-9 assumes the Saints split those thirteen roughly down the middle, going 7-6. That is a modest ask for a roster this schedule was built to flatter.
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New Orleans caught the softest schedule in the league for 2026, the 32nd-hardest slate on the board, and that is the lever that actually moves this team's floor. Pair that draw with a division nobody ran away with last year, an 8-9 Panthers team taking the NFC South, and a 4th-place finish is not a ceiling so much as a starting point they can climb past. The model's 8-9 projection reads conservative given how much this roster underachieved its own volume last season. New Orleans is a sneaky-live bet to beat that number outright.
A 6-11 finish and a power ranking of 26th looks like a stall, but the underlying numbers argue Kellen Moore's first team was better than its record. New Orleans actually outgained opponents by 13.8 yards per game yet won at a 35.3% clip, well below what that margin usually produces. The defense was part of the problem, getting scored on cheaply at 13.3 yards allowed per point against a league median of 14.4. Still, an offense that needed 17.4 yards for every point scored has real room to sharpen under the same play caller in year two. None of that guarantees a leap, but it points toward a coach whose results undersold his team more than his critics will admit.
The Saints scored 18.0 points a game a year ago despite ranking 13th in passing yards, a split that points to real inefficiency rather than a lack of talent. Tyler Shough threw for 2,384 yards with 10 touchdowns against 6 interceptions in 11 games, and he projects as the starter again in 2026. That offense needed 17.4 yards for every point it scored, well worse than the league median, meaning drives stalled short of the end zone far too often. Nearly all of that offense returns. If Kellen Moore's group simply converts its existing volume into points at a normal rate, the record climbs even without adding much new production.
Tyler Shough closes out an open job before it ever becomes one. His 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns over 11 starts were middling, sure, but Kellen Moore has seen enough to hand him 2026 outright. Spencer Rattler's 1,586 yards behind him mean the Saints have a fallback with real starting reps if Shough stumbles, not a threat to his job. Zach Wilson arrives from Miami as pure insurance, his four appearances there barely registering. The bigger question is whether Shough can lift an offense that scored 18.0 points per game a year ago, ranked 27th in yards per play despite respectable passing numbers through the air.
Travis Etienne Jr. arrives from Jacksonville off 1,107 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns, giving Kellen Moore a genuine workhorse behind an offense that finished 28th in rushing yards per game. Alvin Kamara is still in the mix at 471 yards and 1 score, splitting carries across 11 games, and his salary confirms he remains central to the plan rather than a fading complement. Behind them sits a crowded, unproven group: Devin Neal, Audric Estime and Kendre Miller each managed modest totals in limited action, and none separated himself. CJ Donaldson returns with no numbers on file, and Ty Chandler arrives from Minnesota after a marginal 47-yard showing there. The volume question is really about efficiency, not depth, since Etienne and Kamara alone will decide whether this ground game climbs out of the bottom third of the league.
Chris Olave carried this room almost alone, catching 100 passes for 1,163 yards while a punchless offense scored just 18.0 points per game. Nobody else came close. Devaughn Vele's 293 yards were a distant second, and beyond him and Kevin Austin Jr. the depth chart offered little proven juice. That is why the Saints spent capital fixing it: first-round pick Jordyn Tyson arrives to be the second true threat Olave never had, with Barion Brown and Bryce Lance added as later-round pieces. Kellen Moore now has a rookie trio to develop around Olave rather than a supporting cast that mostly disappeared after him.
Juwan Johnson caught 77 passes for 889 yards in 2025, and nothing about his role changes for 2026. What does change is everything behind him. Foster Moreau and Jack Stoll are both gone, and New Orleans replaced that depth by trading for Noah Fant, who caught 34 passes for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns with the Bengals last year, and drafting Georgia's Oscar Delp in the third round. Fant gives Kellen Moore a proven receiving option to pair with Johnson right away, while Delp is a rookie with real upside but no numbers yet to speak of. It is Johnson's room to anchor, but Fant's arrival is what actually upgrades a passing offense that ranked just 28th in points per game a season ago.
New Orleans averaged just 94 rushing yards per game and allowed 49 sacks last season, numbers that made Kellen Moore's offense sputter behind a shaky front. That group is now scattered, with eight linemen gone from a room that also includes Cesar Ruiz, Erik McCoy, Kelvin Banks Jr., Taliese Fuaga and Dillon Radunz among the returners. David Edwards arrives from Buffalo to add competition at guard or tackle, and Auburn's Jeremiah Wright joins as a rookie guard without an NFL snap to his name. Nobody can say with certainty who starts where, since this room offers no depth chart and no way to separate returning starters from backups. What is clear is the sacks and the anemic ground game have to improve, and this retooled line is the whole story of whether they do.
Cameron Jordan and Chase Young anchored one of the league's stingier fronts a year ago, with the defense allowing just 4.84 yards per play, 6th in the league. Both are back, and so is Carl Granderson, who chipped in 6 sacks and 11 TFL. The bigger swing is up front on the inside, where the Saints add Tyree Wilson from the Raiders and drafted Georgia's Christen Miller in the second round to pair with returners Davon Godchaux and Nathan Shepherd. Six defensive linemen left, including Jonathan Bullard and Jonah Williams, thinning the depth even as the top of the rotation stays intact. Kellen Moore's defense does not need to be rebuilt so much as reloaded around the edges it already trusts.
Replacing Demario Davis and his 140 tackles was never going to be a one-for-one swap, so New Orleans went out and got Kaden Elliss instead. Elliss put up 105 tackles and 3.5 sacks in Atlanta last year and now becomes the highest-paid piece of this room at $13.3M, pairing with Pete Werner to give the front two proven tacklers rather than one. Danny Stutsman started 16 games in his role a year ago and slots back in alongside them. Anfernee Jennings and Deion Jones add depth without much dropoff at the position, though neither profiles as an every-down difference-maker on paper. The defense finished 19th in rushing yards allowed per game last season, and it is Elliss and Werner who now carry the job of tightening that up.
Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley form the cornerback tandem that anchored a pass defense giving up just 179 yards a game through the air in 2025, and that number is the real story here. Alontae Taylor is gone, but McKinstry's 3 interceptions and Riley's steady snap count suggest the coverage identity survives his departure. The safety group is deep and stable, with Justin Reid, Jonas Sanker and Jordan Howden all back, though Julian Blackmon played just one game a year ago and his health is worth watching. Tyrann Mathieu's exit closes a chapter, but this room was never built around him statistically. Rookies Lorenzo Styles Jr. and TJ Hall arrive as late additions, not answers, in a group that should still rank among the league's tougher ones to throw on.
Ryan Wright arrives from the Vikings after netting 44.5 yards a punt in 2025, a clear upgrade over departed Kai Kroeger's 38.6 mark. That swing matters for a team that finished 6-11 and needs cleaner field position battles. The bigger question sits at kicker. Charlie Smyth made just 12 of 16 field goals across six games, and Cade York's departure leaves no clarity about who wins the job outright, with Tanner Brown also in the mix. Kellen Moore's second year will be steadier if Wright's leg flips a few games New Orleans lost on the margins last season.
Demario Davis is gone after 140 tackles, and New Orleans didn't replace him with a name off the street. Kaden Elliss arrives from Atlanta with 105 tackles and 3.5 sacks, while Tyree Wilson was acquired via trade from Las Vegas to reset the edge. Deion Jones and Anfernee Jennings add further linebacker depth from Tampa Bay and New England, so this front seven has been remade almost entirely through outside additions rather than internal growth. The defense was getting scored on cheaply last season, needing just 13.3 yards per point allowed, and that cheapness is exactly what this influx of veteran tacklers is meant to fix. Tyler Shough, who threw for 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns in 11 games, is the one holdover piece the offense is building around while the defense gets an entirely new identity.
Tyler Shough is the swing piece here, not because the Saints lack talent around him but because he has never played a full season. His 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns came in just 11 games, with Spencer Rattler filling in the rest, and 2026 is the first year Shough is projected to hold the job wire to wire. Chris Olave and new arrival Travis Etienne Jr. give him real weapons. If Shough stays upright and cuts down the interceptions, an offense that scored inefficiently a year ago has the pieces to turn yards into points.
The record book says 6-11, but the split by location tells a stranger story. New Orleans covered just 43% of the time at home yet 60% on the road, a gap too wide to call noise. As a road underdog specifically, Kellen Moore's team covered at a 64% clip. That home number is the outlier worth watching in 2026, not the road mark. Pair it with a defense that let opponents score cheaply in 2025, at 13.3 yards allowed per point against a 14.4 league median, and the home struggles start to look like more than a scheduling fluke.
15 more sections in the full New Orleans Saints preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.