
All 32 teams get a page: last season’s results, who left in free agency, the draft class, and the schedule with a win probability on every game. Plus the projected 14-team bracket, division orders of finish, and where our number disagrees with the market.
NFC West · 3-14 in 2025Arizona Cardinals7-10 projected · SRS #25 · 73% returningMike LaFleur, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Atlanta Falcons8-9 projected · SRS #20 · 63% returningKevin Stefanski, Yr 1
AFC North · 8-9 in 2025Baltimore Ravens9-8 projected · SRS #13 · 81% returningJesse Minter, Yr 1
AFC East · 12-5 in 2025Buffalo Bills9-8 projected · SRS #8 · 70% returningJoe Brady, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Carolina Panthers8-9 projected · SRS #21 · 78% returningDave Canales, Yr 3
NFC North · 11-6 in 2025Chicago Bears8-9 projected · SRS #16 · 68% returningBen Johnson, Yr 2
AFC North · 6-11 in 2025Cincinnati Bengals8-9 projected · SRS #24 · 84% returningZac Taylor, Yr 8
AFC North · 5-12 in 2025Cleveland Browns7-10 projected · SRS #29 · 77% returningTodd Monken, Yr 1
NFC East · 7-9 in 2025Dallas Cowboys7-10 projected · SRS #23 · 79% returningBrian Schottenheimer, Yr 2
AFC West · 14-3 in 2025Denver Broncos9-8 projected · SRS #9 · 95% returningSean Payton, Yr 4
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Detroit Lions10-7 projected · SRS #10 · 76% returningDan Campbell, Yr 6
NFC North · 9-7 in 2025Green Bay Packers9-8 projected · SRS #15 · 73% returningMatt LaFleur, Yr 8
AFC South · 12-5 in 2025Houston Texans10-7 projected · SRS #4 · 87% returningDeMeco Ryans, Yr 4
AFC South · 8-9 in 2025Indianapolis Colts10-7 projected · SRS #7 · 66% returningShane Steichen, Yr 4
AFC South · 13-4 in 2025Jacksonville Jaguars10-7 projected · SRS #3 · 77% returningLiam Coen, Yr 2
AFC West · 6-11 in 2025Kansas City Chiefs9-8 projected · SRS #12 · 70% returningAndy Reid, Yr 14
AFC West · 3-14 in 2025Las Vegas Raiders6-11 projected · SRS #31 · 76% returningKlint Kubiak, Yr 1
AFC West · 11-6 in 2025Los Angeles Chargers8-9 projected · SRS #14 · 87% returningJim Harbaugh, Yr 3
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025Los Angeles Rams11-6 projected · SRS #2 · 89% returningSean McVay, Yr 10
AFC East · 7-10 in 2025Miami Dolphins7-10 projected · SRS #28 · 51% returningJeff Hafley, Yr 1
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Minnesota Vikings9-8 projected · SRS #18 · 85% returningKevin O’Connell, Yr 5
AFC East · 14-3 in 2025New England Patriots10-7 projected · SRS #6 · 76% returningMike Vrabel, Yr 2
NFC South · 6-11 in 2025New Orleans Saints8-9 projected · SRS #26 · 85% returningKellen Moore, Yr 2
NFC East · 4-13 in 2025New York Giants8-9 projected · SRS #22 · 68% returningJohn Harbaugh, Yr 1
AFC East · 3-14 in 2025New York Jets6-11 projected · SRS #32 · 62% returningAaron Glenn, Yr 2
NFC East · 11-6 in 2025Philadelphia Eagles9-8 projected · SRS #11 · 77% returningNick Sirianni, Yr 6
AFC North · 10-7 in 2025Pittsburgh Steelers9-8 projected · SRS #17 · 79% returningMike McCarthy, Yr 1
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025San Francisco 49ers10-7 projected · SRS #5 · 77% returningKyle Shanahan, Yr 10
NFC West · 14-3 in 2025Seattle Seahawks11-6 projected · SRS #1 · 86% returningMike Macdonald, Yr 3
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Tampa Bay Buccaneers9-8 projected · SRS #19 · 75% returningTodd Bowles, Yr 5
AFC South · 3-14 in 2025Tennessee Titans7-10 projected · SRS #30 · 74% returningRobert Saleh, Yr 1
NFC East · 5-12 in 2025Washington Commanders7-10 projected · SRS #27 · 66% returningDan Quinn, Yr 3AFC East · Jeff Hafley, year 1 · 7-10 last season · No. 28 in our NFL ratings
Every soft signal on Miami's 2025 tape points the same direction, from a schedule that gets tougher to a win rate that outran what the yardage margin actually earned, and none of it says Jeff Hafley's first season should look better than 7-10.
Can Malik Willis hold the job for a full season after Tua Tagovailoa's departure leaves Miami without its starter of record? The offense returns only 45.6% of its production, and Willis has never carried a full slate of starts at this level. Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell give him outside targets, but neither was a featured option at his old team last season. The likelier outcome is a rough transition season at quarterback, with Jordyn Brooks and De'Von Achane doing the heavy lifting while Willis grows into the role.
Miami's 2026 slate isn't brutal, just crowded with jump balls. Nine games land as true toss-ups, and the projected 7-10 mark assumes the Dolphins split them six-and-three rather than the other way. The real hinge points come on the road: at the 49ers, at the Patriots, and at the Colts all sit at 32-33% to win, the three games that will decide whether Jeff Hafley's first season reads as progress or another treadmill year. There's a soft landing spot too, a 62% home date against the Jets that should bank a win. With the overall schedule ranking 15th-hardest, a touch above league median, this isn't a slate that explains a bad record either way. It's a schedule built to be split, and how Miami handles those three road tests decides which half of 7-10 they actually earn.
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A trip to Miami's schedule shows nothing extreme, 15th-hardest of 32, so there is no excuse hiding in the slate. The floor is a third-place finish in the AFC East, exactly what the projection prints, and nothing in the underlying numbers argues for better. Jordyn Brooks anchors a defense that got scored on cheaply a year ago, and until that changes the ceiling stays capped at 7-10.
Jeff Hafley did not build this roster and he does not own its recent slide, which is the fairest way to view a first-year hire inheriting a rating stuck near the bottom of the league. Miami's trajectory has been sinking, not steady, and a 7-10 finish followed a decline from 50% to 44%. That drop is on the previous regime's ledger, not his. Hafley does get real pieces: Jordyn Brooks led the league in tackles with 180, and De'Von Achane ran for 1,350 yards, fifth in the league. Turnover margin sat at a rough -5, which by the numbers is more likely to bounce forward than back, giving a new staff an actual tailwind heading into year one.
De'Von Achane ran for 1,350 yards, fifth in the league, and it barely moved the scoreboard. Miami still finished 25th in points per game and needed 14.7 yards for every point it scored, worse than league median, proof the ground game never translated into finishes. Jordyn Brooks led the league in tackles, but volume tackling didn't stop a defense that allowed 5.80 yards per play, 26th in the league. Malik Willis arrives from Green Bay to run this offense, and his 422 yards on 0 interceptions came in spot duty, not as a full-time answer. Nothing here says the conversion problem fixes itself just because a new quarterback is under center.
Tua Tagovailoa's 2,660 yards walk out the door, and Jeff Hafley inherits a quarterback room with no proven answer behind center. Malik Willis, who threw for 422 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception in four games for the Packers, is the front-runner for the job after arriving in free agency. That is not a lock. Quinn Ewers managed just 622 yards and 3 touchdowns against 3 interceptions in his own four games, and Mark Gronowski and Cam Miller round out a group with no real separation yet. Miami's passing attack ranked 25th in the league a year ago, and whoever wins camp inherits an offense that still has to prove it can move the ball through the air.
De'Von Achane is the engine here, coming off 1,350 yards and 8 touchdowns that put him 5th in the league in rushing. That workload came in 16 games, and Miami paying him $10 million says the club sees no reason to lighten his role. Behind him the picture thins out fast. Ollie Gordon II managed 199 yards and Jaylen Wright added 288 in 9 games, but neither forced a real change of pace, and Donovan Edwards, DJ Herman and Carlos Washington Jr. carry no numbers to lean on for a snap count claim. Six backs left this offseason, including Alec Ingold's pass-catching work out of the backfield, which puts real pressure on Jeff Hafley to find a complementary piece behind Achane rather than another Achane clone.
Jaylen Waddle's 910 yards and Tyreek Hill's speed are both gone, and Miami replaced them by volume rather than star power. Jalen Tolbert arrives from Dallas after an 18-catch season, Tutu Atwell brings 192 yards on just six catches from the Rams, and Malik Washington returns as the closest thing to a proven target after his 46-catch year. That is a steep drop from a passing attack that already ranked 25th in the league in passing yards per game. Jeff Hafley did not bring in one answer, he brought in five: Tolbert, Atwell, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jalen Reagor and rookie Caleb Douglas all now compete for snaps behind Washington. Volume without a true number one is a real risk, and this room looks built to grind out yards more than to threaten deep.
Darren Waller's 6 touchdowns walked out the door, and so did the next three tight ends on the depth chart, leaving Greg Dulcich as the lone holdover with real receiving numbers. Dulcich caught 26 passes for 335 yards, modest production for an offense that finished 25th in points per game and 25th in passing yards, but he's now the clear top target at the position. Jeff Hafley's staff answered the exodus by adding four bodies at once, headlined by rookies Will Kacmarek and Seydou Traore, plus veterans Cole Turner and Ben Sims. Sims caught just 3 passes for 30 yards with the Vikings last season, so he profiles as depth rather than a fix. This is a room built on volume of additions rather than a single proven answer, and Dulcich's health and target share will decide whether that gamble pays off.
A line that surrendered 38 sacks and managed just 120 rushing yards per game a year ago got almost entirely rebuilt this offseason. Jeff Hafley inherits a group anchored, at least on paper, by Jonah Savaiinaea, Patrick Paul and Aaron Brewer, but 18 linemen from last year's operation are gone and only 8 return, so nobody should assume continuity here. The fixes came in bulk. Charlie Heck, Jamaree Salyer, Carter Warren, Gottlieb Ayedze and Caedan Wallace all arrive from other teams, and Alabama's Kadyn Proctor, drafted 12th overall and already the room's highest-paid player at $16.3M, is the long-term answer at tackle. None of that guarantees cohesion in year one. Miami is betting volume of new pieces fixes a unit that ranked outside the top ten in both rushing and yards per play, and that bet won't be settled until Proctor and the free-agent imports actually line up together.
Zach Sieler was the one consistent disruptor up front, piling up 5.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss while the line around him allowed 132 rushing yards a game, 26th in the league. Jeff Hafley brought in reinforcements rather than a total overhaul, adding Clelin Ferrell and Robert Beal Jr. from the 49ers after both played limited snaps there in 2025. Kenneth Grant and Jordan Phillips return in the interior rotation alongside Sieler, giving the tackle spots real continuity even as Benito Jones departs. The bigger swing is on the edge, where rookies Trey Moore and Max Llewellyn arrive with no professional stat line to lean on yet. If Ferrell can rediscover the pass-rush juice he showed with 4 sacks in just 8 games, this front has a chance to push that 26th-ranked yards-per-play number in the right direction.
Jordyn Brooks led the league in tackles with 180 last year, and he anchors a linebacker room that gave up 132 rushing yards a game, 26th in the league. Tyrel Dodson brings another 127 tackles back to pair with him, so the tackling is not the concern. The pass rush is the real question after Bradley Chubb and Matthew Judon both left, taking 8.5 and 1 sacks with them, and David Ojabo arrives from the Ravens to help replace that edge presence. Chop Robinson's 4 sacks in 12 games are the most proven juice up front returning, while rookies Jacob Rodriguez and Kyle Louis add draft capital without any 2025 production to judge yet. Jeff Hafley inherits a defense that finished 15th in sacks overall, and the bet here is that Ojabo's speed off the edge matters more than the ten departures at the position.
Minkah Fitzpatrick's 80 tackles walked out the door, along with the rest of a secondary that let opponents move the ball through the air at an 18th-ranked clip a year ago. Jeff Hafley is rebuilding almost from scratch here, with 18 defensive backs gone and Darrell Baker Jr. arriving from Tennessee to soak up snaps after logging 54 tackles there in 2025. Dante Trader Jr. is the one holdover who actually profiles as a building block, having matched that same 54-tackle mark last year, and Jason Marshall Jr. offers a second recognizable name at corner. Round 1 pick Chris Johnson gives the room a long-term answer outside, though a rookie corner leaning on Alex Austin and Marco Wilson for depth is not a formula built for immediate results. Points allowed sat at 24.9 per game, 24th in the league, and nothing about this offseason screams quick fix.
Zane Gonzalez arrives from the Falcons to push Riley Patterson at kicker, and that competition is the actual story here. Patterson made 27 of 29 field goals a year ago, a number Gonzalez cannot match on raw accuracy after going 19 of 22. Jeff Hafley inherits a specialist room with two capable legs and no obvious incumbent lock. At punter, Bradley Pinion steps in for the departed Jake Bailey, and his 40.6 net average from Atlanta lands close enough to Bailey's 42.6 that the swap should be close to a wash. Tucker Addington remains the long snapper, the one settled job in a group otherwise sorting itself out.
Tua Tagovailoa's 2,660 yards and Tyreek Hill's speed are gone, and Miami hands the offense to Malik Willis, who threw for just 422 yards in four games behind Green Bay's starter last season. That is a real bet on upside over track record. The receiving room gets reinforced by Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, but neither replaces Jaylen Waddle's 910 yards on his own. Defensively, the churn is even heavier: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jack Jones, Ashtyn Davis and Rasul Douglas all left the secondary, and Darrell Baker Jr. and Zayne Anderson arrive from Tennessee and Green Bay to help rebuild it. With 71 departures against 41 arrivals, Jeff Hafley inherits a roster in genuine transition, and a 13-pick draft class headlined by tackle Kadyn Proctor gives him more pieces to sort through than answers already in hand.
Malik Willis inherits an offense that stalled short of the end zone too often in 2025, and fixing that falls squarely on him. He replaces Tua Tagovailoa's 2,660 yards and 20 touchdowns after throwing for just 422 yards and 3 scores in four games with the Packers last season. De'Von Achane's 1,350 rushing yards give Willis a run game to lean on, but Miami's offense burned through more yardage per score than the league average a year ago. If Willis can't get more efficient in the red zone, that scoring problem simply repeats itself. Everything Jeff Hafley wants to build starts with whether his new quarterback finishes drives instead of just moving the chains.
The split on this team's betting card is stark. Miami covers at a 60% clip at home and a sharp 63% inside the AFC East, yet drops to 46% on the road and just 43% as a road underdog. That gap is the story for Jeff Hafley's first year, not the raw 7-10 mark. The turnover margin sat at -5 last season, a number likelier to improve than repeat, which argues for a better cover rate wherever Miami plays. Still, until the road number moves, bettors should treat this as a home team wearing a road jersey.
15 more sections in the full Miami Dolphins preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.