































No team's record lied more than Kansas City's. A 6-11 finish with 70% of the roster back is the widest gap between last year's ledger and this year's talent on this list, and the model treats it as a correction waiting to happen. Arizona is the next-clearest case, a 3-14 mark against 73% returning, the kind of split that usually means bad luck more than bad football. The pattern across Baltimore, Detroit, Indianapolis and the Giants is the same story: veteran cores mostly intact, records that undersold them, and a division landscape none of them are built to stay buried in.
| Gain | Team | Last season to projected |
|---|---|---|
| +4 | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 to 7-10 |
| +4 | New York Giants | 4-13 to 8-9 |
| +4 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 to 7-10 |
| +3 | New York Jets | 3-14 to 6-11 |
| +3 | Las Vegas Raiders |
Every Premium Issue is included with Major League, or you can buy one on its own. Same treatment as the book you just read: a page for every team, the projections behind it, and the games that decide the season.
| 3-14 to 6-11 |
| +3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 to 9-8 |
| +2 | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 to 7-10 |
| +2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 to 8-9 |
| +2 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 to 10-7 |
| +2 | Washington Commanders | 5-12 to 7-10 |
| +2 | New Orleans Saints | 6-11 to 8-9 |
| +1 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 to 9-8 |
| +1 | Detroit Lions | 9-8 to 10-7 |
| +1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 to 9-8 |
Our projected 2026 win total against last season's, largest gain first.
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