
All 32 teams get a page: last season’s results, who left in free agency, the draft class, and the schedule with a win probability on every game. Plus the projected 14-team bracket, division orders of finish, and where our number disagrees with the market.
NFC West · 3-14 in 2025Arizona Cardinals7-10 projected · SRS #25 · 73% returningMike LaFleur, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Atlanta Falcons8-9 projected · SRS #20 · 63% returningKevin Stefanski, Yr 1
AFC North · 8-9 in 2025Baltimore Ravens9-8 projected · SRS #13 · 81% returningJesse Minter, Yr 1
AFC East · 12-5 in 2025Buffalo Bills9-8 projected · SRS #8 · 70% returningJoe Brady, Yr 1
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Carolina Panthers8-9 projected · SRS #21 · 78% returningDave Canales, Yr 3
NFC North · 11-6 in 2025Chicago Bears8-9 projected · SRS #16 · 68% returningBen Johnson, Yr 2
AFC North · 6-11 in 2025Cincinnati Bengals8-9 projected · SRS #24 · 84% returningZac Taylor, Yr 8
AFC North · 5-12 in 2025Cleveland Browns7-10 projected · SRS #29 · 77% returningTodd Monken, Yr 1
NFC East · 7-9 in 2025Dallas Cowboys7-10 projected · SRS #23 · 79% returningBrian Schottenheimer, Yr 2
AFC West · 14-3 in 2025Denver Broncos9-8 projected · SRS #9 · 95% returningSean Payton, Yr 4
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Detroit Lions10-7 projected · SRS #10 · 76% returningDan Campbell, Yr 6
NFC North · 9-7 in 2025Green Bay Packers9-8 projected · SRS #15 · 73% returningMatt LaFleur, Yr 8
AFC South · 12-5 in 2025Houston Texans10-7 projected · SRS #4 · 87% returningDeMeco Ryans, Yr 4
AFC South · 8-9 in 2025Indianapolis Colts10-7 projected · SRS #7 · 66% returningShane Steichen, Yr 4
AFC South · 13-4 in 2025Jacksonville Jaguars10-7 projected · SRS #3 · 77% returningLiam Coen, Yr 2
AFC West · 6-11 in 2025Kansas City Chiefs9-8 projected · SRS #12 · 70% returningAndy Reid, Yr 14
AFC West · 3-14 in 2025Las Vegas Raiders6-11 projected · SRS #31 · 76% returningKlint Kubiak, Yr 1
AFC West · 11-6 in 2025Los Angeles Chargers8-9 projected · SRS #14 · 87% returningJim Harbaugh, Yr 3
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025Los Angeles Rams11-6 projected · SRS #2 · 89% returningSean McVay, Yr 10
AFC East · 7-10 in 2025Miami Dolphins7-10 projected · SRS #28 · 51% returningJeff Hafley, Yr 1
NFC North · 9-8 in 2025Minnesota Vikings9-8 projected · SRS #18 · 85% returningKevin O’Connell, Yr 5
AFC East · 14-3 in 2025New England Patriots10-7 projected · SRS #6 · 76% returningMike Vrabel, Yr 2
NFC South · 6-11 in 2025New Orleans Saints8-9 projected · SRS #26 · 85% returningKellen Moore, Yr 2
NFC East · 4-13 in 2025New York Giants8-9 projected · SRS #22 · 68% returningJohn Harbaugh, Yr 1
AFC East · 3-14 in 2025New York Jets6-11 projected · SRS #32 · 62% returningAaron Glenn, Yr 2
NFC East · 11-6 in 2025Philadelphia Eagles9-8 projected · SRS #11 · 77% returningNick Sirianni, Yr 6
AFC North · 10-7 in 2025Pittsburgh Steelers9-8 projected · SRS #17 · 79% returningMike McCarthy, Yr 1
NFC West · 12-5 in 2025San Francisco 49ers10-7 projected · SRS #5 · 77% returningKyle Shanahan, Yr 10
NFC West · 14-3 in 2025Seattle Seahawks11-6 projected · SRS #1 · 86% returningMike Macdonald, Yr 3
NFC South · 8-9 in 2025Tampa Bay Buccaneers9-8 projected · SRS #19 · 75% returningTodd Bowles, Yr 5
AFC South · 3-14 in 2025Tennessee Titans7-10 projected · SRS #30 · 74% returningRobert Saleh, Yr 1
NFC East · 5-12 in 2025Washington Commanders7-10 projected · SRS #27 · 66% returningDan Quinn, Yr 3NFC North · Dan Campbell, year 6 · 9-8 last season · No. 10 in our NFL ratings
Detroit lost five of seven one-score games and still finished plus-41.3 yards per game on the season, the kind of gap that points toward a bounce-back closer to what Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown's offense actually produced than what the 9-8 mark suggested.
Can a defense returning just 63.8% of its production keep pace while the offense reloads around Jared Goff? The likelier answer is no, not right away. Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell anchor the front seven, but a unit that gave up points cheaply in 2025, needing only 13.7 yards per scoring drive against, loses too many other pieces to trust a repeat of that same defense. Detroit's ceiling still runs through Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, yet the division was decided by 2-4 defensive slippage last year, not offensive stalling. Until the defense proves it replaced its departures, this team looks built to outscore people again rather than stop them.
Detroit's 2026 slate ranks 31st-hardest of 32 teams, a genuine gift after finishing fourth in the NFC North last year. That soft draw does not mean an easy path, though. Three games decide it: at the Bills, at the Packers and at the Bears, each a near coin flip in the 43-47% range. The projected 10-7 mark assumes the Lions split those kinds of toss-ups roughly four-of-eleven their way, not that Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown simply cruise. Dan Campbell has the favorable calendar teams covet; whether Jack Campbell's defense holds up in Green Bay and Chicago says more about 2026 than the schedule rank ever will.
Every team in the NFL book. Each one has its own preview: projected finish, what the roster returns, and the games that decide the season.
Every Premium Issue is included with Major League, or you can buy one on its own. Same treatment as the book you just read: a page for every team, the projections behind it, and the games that decide the season.
Detroit drew the 31st-hardest slate in the league, a rare gift that puts the NFC North back in play after finishing fourth in it. That easy schedule pairs with a genuine bounce-back case: this was a 9-8 team whose margins looked more like a playoff club, and the projection lands at 10-7 and first in the division. The turnover margin was a plus number that will likely regress, but everything else here points up, not down. The ceiling is a division title built on Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hutchinson; the floor is still a team better than last year's record showed.
A 9-8 finish and a fourth-place division landing spot buried the real story of Dan Campbell's sixth year: the underlying numbers pointed to a considerably better team than the record showed. Detroit's full-season yardage margin implied a win rate well above what it actually posted, and a 2-5 mark in one-score games only adds to the case that this roster is stronger than the standings suggest. The talent argument is not close. Jared Goff finished 2nd in the league in passing yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked 2nd in receiving touchdowns, and Jack Campbell and Aidan Hutchinson anchor a defense with a top-ten power rating despite the rough stretch inside NFC North play. None of that erases a 2-4 division mark, but it argues Campbell's staff is coaching a top-ten roster that underachieved its own metrics, not one that overachieved a mediocre one.
Detroit's offense doesn't need gaudy ground numbers to hum. Jared Goff threw for 4,564 yards, second in the league, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's 11 receiving touchdowns ranked second among all receivers, so the passing game carries this unit even with the run game sitting 14th in yards per game. Defensively, Jack Campbell was the engine, finishing second in the league in tackles with 174, while Aidan Hutchinson's 14.5 sacks ranked 5th and helped a group that finished 4th in team sacks overall. Points allowed lagged the talent, ranking 22nd, which is the real gap between this roster and last year's record. None of that argues the defense is bad; it argues the front seven's disruption hasn't yet translated into points prevented.
Jared Goff threw for 4,564 yards last season, second in the league, and there is nothing unsettled about this room. The Lions built one of the league's most efficient offenses around him, 4th in points per game and 3rd in yards per play, and his $55 million deal reflects it. What changes for 2026 is the depth behind him. Teddy Bridgewater and Joshua Dobbs arrive from Tampa Bay and New England as veteran insurance, replacing Kyle Allen and C.J. Beathard, while Luke Altmyer sits as the developmental arm. None of that touches the starting job. This offense goes only as far as Goff carries it, and Dan Campbell has built the whole operation on that bet.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the engine here, coming off 1,223 yards and 13 touchdowns, good for 4th in the league in scores on the ground. David Montgomery's 716 yards and 8 touchdowns are gone, and Detroit didn't replace him with a committee, it brought in Isiah Pacheco from the Chiefs, who ran for 462 yards last year. That's the real bet of this offseason: Pacheco takes the early-down grind work Montgomery used to handle, freeing Gibbs to keep operating as the explosive threat behind a line that produced 5.97 yards per play, 3rd in the league. Trayveon Williams arrives from Cleveland as a pass-catching complement, while Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors remain around the fringes without much of a 2025 footprint. The ceiling stays high because Gibbs is the centerpiece, but the floor now depends on whether Pacheco can hold up as the between-the-tackles answer Montgomery once was.
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished second in the league in receiving touchdowns last season, and everything here still runs through him first. Jameson Williams gives Detroit the vertical piece, coming off 1,117 yards, so the top of this room is not the issue. The depth is what changed. Kalif Raymond's 289 yards on 24 catches are gone from the slot rotation, and the answer looks like a mix of Isaac TeSlaa, who found the end zone six times in a smaller role, and Greg Dortch, brought in after catching 29 passes for the Cardinals a year ago. Detroit did not chase a big name behind St. Brown and Williams. It added complementary pieces in Dortch, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and rookie Kendrick Law, betting the top two carry the room the way they carried a top-five scoring offense in 2025.
Sam LaPorta anchors this group, and his 40 catches for 489 yards make him the clear focal point of a passing attack that finished 3rd in the league in yards per game. Brock Wright returns as the in-line complement, a role player who found the end zone twice despite playing in just 8 games. Detroit reshuffled the depth behind them, adding Tyler Conklin from the Chargers and Thomas Gordon from the Bears while letting Anthony Firkser, Shane Zylstra and three others walk. Conklin's numbers with the Chargers were modest, but he gives Dan Campbell a proven veteran to rotate in rather than leaning on unknowns. This is LaPorta's room now, and how much Detroit funnels through him could decide whether that passing game keeps its edge.
Penei Sewell anchors a line that produced 5.97 yards per play last year, third in the league, even while allowing 39 sacks. That efficiency masked real churn up front, and now the churn is total. Graham Glasgow, Chris Hubbard, Dan Skipper, Taylor Decker and Justin Herron are gone, part of 13 departures against just 10 returning bodies, so this is functionally a new line around Sewell and Christian Mahogany. Detroit answered with volume rather than a single fix, bringing in Juice Scruggs, Ben Bartch, Larry Borom, Cade Mays and Seth McLaughlin and spending the 17th overall pick on Clemson's Blake Miller. Dan Campbell has rebuilt position rooms before, but replacing this much of a top-tier unit at once is a real bet on quantity finding quality.
Aidan Hutchinson anchors this front, and his 14.5 sacks last year make him one of the most disruptive edges in the league. Detroit still finished 4th in sacks with 49, but the interior that helped generate that pressure looks different now. Roy Lopez, DJ Reader and Al-Quadin Muhammad are all gone, taking real snaps and 11 sacks worth of production off the roster, part of nine total losses along that line. Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams and Tyler Lacy return to fill the interior, while Jay Tufele arrives from the Jets and second-round rookie Derrick Moore adds juice off the edge. The pass rush should still bother people. Stopping the run at 115 yards allowed per game, 14th in the league, is the tougher question with Reader's bulk no longer in the middle.
Jack Campbell and Devin White finished 2nd and 3rd in the league in tackles last season, and now they line up together. That pairing alone changes the math for Detroit's front seven. Alex Anzalone is gone, part of a group of nine linebackers who departed, but replacing him barely registers next to adding White from the Raiders. Derrick Barnes and DJ Wonnum return to fill out the group, while Joe Bachie, Damone Clark, Troy Reeder and Amen Ogbongbemiga arrive as depth pieces from four different teams. The defense ranked 4th in the league in sacks a year ago; with Campbell and White both capable of getting after the passer, that number should hold even as the pass defense tries to climb out of 22nd in points allowed.
Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, both unavailable to open the year, headline a secondary that gave up 217 passing yards a game, 20th in the league, a mediocre number for a defense with this much talent at safety. The real churn is at corner, where Amik Robertson and Terrion Arnold are both gone and Roger McCreary arrives from the Rams to pair with D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin. Chuck Clark comes over from the Steelers to add a physical presence next to Branch, giving Dan Campbell more veteran bodies than a year ago even after 15 defensive backs departed. Fifth-round pick Keith Abney II joins a room that does not need him to start immediately. The bet here is that continuity at safety covers for a rebuilt cornerback rotation still finding its shape.
Jake Bates hit 27 of 34 field goals in 2025, a number that undersells how much Dan Campbell trusts his leg in tight games. Jack Fox remains one of the steadier weapons on this roster, netting 42.8 yards per punt across 56 attempts, and his $3.1M price tag reflects how much Detroit values field position. Nothing here is changing. Bates and Fox are both back, long snapper Hogan Hatten returns to anchor the operation, and the continuity on this unit stands out against a roster that turned over elsewhere. That stability matters for a team that went 2-4 in NFC North play, since special teams was not the reason those division games got away.
Detroit lost more sacks and run-stopping punch up front than it added, with Al-Quadin Muhammad's 11 sacks and DJ Reader's and Roy Lopez's snaps all walking out the door. The answer wasn't the trenches directly but the second level, where Devin White arrives after piling up 169 tackles with the Raiders to pair with Jack Campbell, who finished 2nd in the league in tackles a year ago. Alex Anzalone's 95 tackles still need replacing, and Joe Bachie and Damone Clark arrive as depth pieces rather than clear answers there. The bigger swing might be structural: Detroit was a buyer in this draft, landing extra picks from Dallas, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Cleveland to grab edge rusher Derrick Moore and linebacker Jimmy Rolder. Aidan Hutchinson, who ranked 5th in the league in sacks last season, still has to carry the pass rush until that group proves it belongs.
Isiah Pacheco is the swing factor. David Montgomery's 716 yards and 8 touchdowns walk out the door, and Detroit needs Pacheco's 462 yards from Kansas City to prove he can carry that same short-yardage, pound-it-out role next to Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs remains the explosive piece, but Pacheco has to be the grinder who keeps drives alive and spells him inside the red zone. If that fit clicks, the ground game stays a weapon even with a new name in the backfield.
Nine wins undersold this team, and the betting market has quietly caught on to Dan Campbell's group. Detroit has covered 56% of the time overall under him, and the road number is even sharper at 57%, a profile that fits a roster whose actual point margins ran ahead of its record. That gap traces partly to close games: a 2-5 mark in one-score contests is the kind of number that flips the other way. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown give this offense a floor few underdogs want to face, and as home favorites the Lions have covered at a 57% clip. The one real drag was field position value on defense, which let opponents score cheaply, but nothing here argues against betting Detroit again in 2026.
15 more sections in the full Detroit Lions preview — the verdict, every position group, the roster churn and the projected finish.