New Orleans Pelicans playoff chances
16% to make the playoffs.
The Pelicans (0-3) make the playoffs in 16% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 6% in the top six and straight in, and 26% in the play-in. They finish about 33-49 on average. A win over the Nuggets on Wednesday, October 28 would put them at 21%; a loss, 12%.
The Pelicans, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Nuggets, Wed, Oct 28. The model gives them 43% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 21%; lose and it is 12%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Pelicans' chances of making the playoffs?
The Pelicans (0-3) make the playoffs in 16% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 6% in the top six and straight in, and 26% in the play-in. They finish about 33-49 on average. A win over the Nuggets on Wednesday, October 28 would put them at 21%; a loss, 12%.
Can the Pelicans win the NBA title?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in <1% and win a playoff round in 4%.
How much does the Pelicans' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 21%; lose and it is 12%. The model gives them a 43% chance to win it.