Houston Rockets playoff chances
90% to make the playoffs.
The Rockets (3-0) make the playoffs in 90% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 80% in the top six and straight in, and 17% in the play-in. They finish about 52-30 on average. A win over the Hawks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 93%; a loss, 87%.
The Rockets, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Hawks, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 61% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 93%; lose and it is 87%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Rockets' chances of making the playoffs?
The Rockets (3-0) make the playoffs in 90% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 80% in the top six and straight in, and 17% in the play-in. They finish about 52-30 on average. A win over the Hawks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 93%; a loss, 87%.
Can the Rockets win the NBA title?
In 8% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 13% and win a playoff round in 53%.
How much does the Rockets' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 93%; lose and it is 87%. The model gives them a 61% chance to win it.