Oklahoma City Thunder playoff chances
97% to make the playoffs.
The Thunder (3-0) make the playoffs in 97% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 92% in the top six and straight in, and 7% in the play-in. They finish about 56-26 on average. A win over the Suns on Monday, October 26 would put them at 98%; a loss, 95%.
The Thunder, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Suns, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 75% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 98%; lose and it is 95%.
The rest of the West
Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Thunder's chances of making the playoffs?
The Thunder (3-0) make the playoffs in 97% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 92% in the top six and straight in, and 7% in the play-in. They finish about 56-26 on average. A win over the Suns on Monday, October 26 would put them at 98%; a loss, 95%.
Can the Thunder win the NBA title?
In 18% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 28% and win a playoff round in 71%.
How much does the Thunder's next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 98%; lose and it is 95%. The model gives them a 75% chance to win it.