Portland Trail Blazers playoff chances
68% to make the playoffs.
The Trail Blazers (2-0) make the playoffs in 68% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 49% in the top six and straight in, and 37% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win at the Lakers on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 77%; a loss, 62%.
The Trail Blazers, 2026-27
Next game
At the Lakers, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 40% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 77%; lose and it is 62%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Trail Blazers' chances of making the playoffs?
The Trail Blazers (2-0) make the playoffs in 68% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 49% in the top six and straight in, and 37% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win at the Lakers on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 77%; a loss, 62%.
Can the Trail Blazers win the NBA title?
In 3% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 5% and win a playoff round in 29%.
How much does the Trail Blazers' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 77%; lose and it is 62%. The model gives them a 40% chance to win it.