San Antonio Spurs playoff chances
84% to make the playoffs.
The Spurs (1-2) make the playoffs in 84% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 67% in the top six and straight in, and 27% in the play-in. They finish about 49-33 on average. A win over the Kings on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 86%; a loss, 75%.
The Spurs, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Kings, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 82% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 86%; lose and it is 75%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Spurs' chances of making the playoffs?
The Spurs (1-2) make the playoffs in 84% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 67% in the top six and straight in, and 27% in the play-in. They finish about 49-33 on average. A win over the Kings on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 86%; a loss, 75%.
Can the Spurs win the NBA title?
In 6% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 11% and win a playoff round in 46%.
How much does the Spurs' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 86%; lose and it is 75%. The model gives them a 82% chance to win it.