Denver Nuggets playoff chances
69% to make the playoffs.
The Nuggets (1-1) make the playoffs in 69% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 48% in the top six and straight in, and 38% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win over the Warriors on Monday, October 26 would put them at 73%; a loss, 59%.
The Nuggets, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Warriors, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 68% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 73%; lose and it is 59%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Nuggets' chances of making the playoffs?
The Nuggets (1-1) make the playoffs in 69% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 48% in the top six and straight in, and 38% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win over the Warriors on Monday, October 26 would put them at 73%; a loss, 59%.
Can the Nuggets win the NBA title?
In 3% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 6% and win a playoff round in 31%.
How much does the Nuggets' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 73%; lose and it is 59%. The model gives them a 68% chance to win it.