Memphis Grizzlies playoff chances
43% to make the playoffs.
The Grizzlies (3-0) make the playoffs in 43% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 23% in the top six and straight in, and 42% in the play-in. They finish about 40-42 on average. A win at the Jazz on Monday, October 26 would put them at 49%; a loss, 35%.
The Grizzlies, 2026-27
Next game
At the Jazz, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 55% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 49%; lose and it is 35%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Grizzlies' chances of making the playoffs?
The Grizzlies (3-0) make the playoffs in 43% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 23% in the top six and straight in, and 42% in the play-in. They finish about 40-42 on average. A win at the Jazz on Monday, October 26 would put them at 49%; a loss, 35%.
Can the Grizzlies win the NBA title?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 1% and win a playoff round in 12%.
How much does the Grizzlies' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 49%; lose and it is 35%. The model gives them a 55% chance to win it.