Minnesota Timberwolves playoff chances
94% to make the playoffs.
The Timberwolves (3-0) make the playoffs in 94% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 86% in the top six and straight in, and 13% in the play-in. They finish about 54-28 on average. A win at the Cavaliers on Monday, October 26 would put them at 96%; a loss, 91%.
The Timberwolves, 2026-27
Next game
At the Cavaliers, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 56% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 96%; lose and it is 91%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%, Warriors 23%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Timberwolves' chances of making the playoffs?
The Timberwolves (3-0) make the playoffs in 94% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 86% in the top six and straight in, and 13% in the play-in. They finish about 54-28 on average. A win at the Cavaliers on Monday, October 26 would put them at 96%; a loss, 91%.
Can the Timberwolves win the NBA title?
In 13% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 20% and win a playoff round in 63%.
How much does the Timberwolves' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 96%; lose and it is 91%. The model gives them a 56% chance to win it.