Dallas Mavericks playoff chances
19% to make the playoffs.
The Mavericks (1-2) make the playoffs in 19% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 8% in the top six and straight in, and 29% in the play-in. They finish about 34-48 on average. A win at the Heat on Monday, October 26 would put them at 24%; a loss, 15%.
The Mavericks, 2026-27
Next game
At the Heat, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 39% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 24%; lose and it is 15%.
The rest of the West
Thunder 97%, Timberwolves 94%, Rockets 90%, Spurs 84%, Lakers 80%, Nuggets 69%, Trail Blazers 68%, Clippers 61%, Suns 47%, Grizzlies 43%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Mavericks' chances of making the playoffs?
The Mavericks (1-2) make the playoffs in 19% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 8% in the top six and straight in, and 29% in the play-in. They finish about 34-48 on average. A win at the Heat on Monday, October 26 would put them at 24%; a loss, 15%.
Can the Mavericks win the NBA title?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in <1% and win a playoff round in 4%.
How much does the Mavericks' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 24%; lose and it is 15%. The model gives them a 39% chance to win it.