Detroit Red Wings playoff chances
21% to make the playoffs.
The Red Wings (4-4-3, 11 points) make the playoffs in 21% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish with about 84 points on average. A win at the Oilers on Monday, October 26 would put them at 28%; a loss, 17%.
The Red Wings, 2026-27
Next game
At the Oilers, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 38% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 28%; lose and it is 17%.
The rest of the East
Bruins 93%, Hurricanes 91%, Lightning 76%, Senators 67%, Rangers 63%, Capitals 60%, Maple Leafs 59%, Canadiens 52%, Devils 51%, Islanders 41%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Red Wings' chances of making the playoffs?
The Red Wings (4-4-3, 11 points) make the playoffs in 21% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish with about 84 points on average. A win at the Oilers on Monday, October 26 would put them at 28%; a loss, 17%.
Can the Red Wings win the Stanley Cup?
In 1% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 1% and win a playoff round in 8%.
How much does the Red Wings' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 28%; lose and it is 17%. The model gives them a 38% chance to win it.