Tampa Bay Lightning playoff chances
76% to make the playoffs.
The Lightning (7-3-1, 15 points) make the playoffs in 76% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 19% of the time and finish with about 105 points on average. A win over the Jets on Thursday, October 29 would put them at 81%; a loss, 68%.
The Lightning, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Jets, Thu, Oct 29. The model gives them 61% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 81%; lose and it is 68%.
The rest of the East
Bruins 93%, Hurricanes 91%, Senators 67%, Rangers 63%, Capitals 60%, Maple Leafs 59%, Canadiens 52%, Devils 51%, Islanders 41%, Penguins 37%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Lightning's chances of making the playoffs?
The Lightning (7-3-1, 15 points) make the playoffs in 76% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 19% of the time and finish with about 105 points on average. A win over the Jets on Thursday, October 29 would put them at 81%; a loss, 68%.
Can the Lightning win the Stanley Cup?
In 5% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 10% and win a playoff round in 40%.
How much does the Lightning's next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 81%; lose and it is 68%. The model gives them a 61% chance to win it.