Ottawa Senators playoff chances
67% to make the playoffs.
The Senators (8-4-0, 16 points) make the playoffs in 67% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish with about 101 points on average. A win at the Golden Knights on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 73%; a loss, 61%.
The Senators, 2026-27
Next game
At the Golden Knights, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 48% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 73%; lose and it is 61%.
The rest of the East
Bruins 93%, Hurricanes 91%, Lightning 76%, Rangers 63%, Capitals 60%, Maple Leafs 59%, Canadiens 52%, Devils 51%, Islanders 41%, Penguins 37%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Senators' chances of making the playoffs?
The Senators (8-4-0, 16 points) make the playoffs in 67% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 12% of the time and finish with about 101 points on average. A win at the Golden Knights on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 73%; a loss, 61%.
Can the Senators win the Stanley Cup?
In 4% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 7% and win a playoff round in 32%.
How much does the Senators' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 73%; lose and it is 61%. The model gives them a 48% chance to win it.