New York Islanders playoff chances
41% to make the playoffs.
The Islanders (5-4-2, 12 points) make the playoffs in 41% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 6% of the time and finish with about 92 points on average. A win at the Predators on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 49%; a loss, 34%.
The Islanders, 2026-27
Next game
At the Predators, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 48% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 49%; lose and it is 34%.
The rest of the East
Bruins 93%, Hurricanes 91%, Lightning 76%, Senators 67%, Rangers 63%, Capitals 60%, Maple Leafs 59%, Canadiens 52%, Devils 51%, Penguins 37%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Islanders' chances of making the playoffs?
The Islanders (5-4-2, 12 points) make the playoffs in 41% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 6% of the time and finish with about 92 points on average. A win at the Predators on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 49%; a loss, 34%.
Can the Islanders win the Stanley Cup?
In 1% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 3% and win a playoff round in 18%.
How much does the Islanders' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 49%; lose and it is 34%. The model gives them a 48% chance to win it.