Toronto Raptors playoff chances
78% to make the playoffs.
The Raptors (2-1) make the playoffs in 78% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 62% in the top six and straight in, and 29% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win over the Magic on Wednesday, October 28 would put them at 83%; a loss, 71%.
The Raptors, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Magic, Wed, Oct 28. The model gives them 63% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 83%; lose and it is 71%.
The rest of the East
Pistons 98%, Celtics 88%, Hawks 86%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Hornets 66%, Magic 53%, Heat 38%, Pacers 28%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Raptors' chances of making the playoffs?
The Raptors (2-1) make the playoffs in 78% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 62% in the top six and straight in, and 29% in the play-in. They finish about 45-37 on average. A win over the Magic on Wednesday, October 28 would put them at 83%; a loss, 71%.
Can the Raptors win the NBA title?
In 3% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 8% and win a playoff round in 39%.
How much does the Raptors' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 83%; lose and it is 71%. The model gives them a 63% chance to win it.