Charlotte Hornets playoff chances
66% to make the playoffs.
The Hornets (2-1) make the playoffs in 66% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 47% in the top six and straight in, and 36% in the play-in. They finish about 43-40 on average. A win over the Wizards on Monday, October 26 would put them at 71%; a loss, 55%.
The Hornets, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Wizards, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 72% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 71%; lose and it is 55%.
The rest of the East
Pistons 98%, Celtics 88%, Hawks 86%, Raptors 78%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Magic 53%, Heat 38%, Pacers 28%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Hornets' chances of making the playoffs?
The Hornets (2-1) make the playoffs in 66% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 47% in the top six and straight in, and 36% in the play-in. They finish about 43-40 on average. A win over the Wizards on Monday, October 26 would put them at 71%; a loss, 55%.
Can the Hornets win the NBA title?
In 2% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 5% and win a playoff round in 28%.
How much does the Hornets' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 71%; lose and it is 55%. The model gives them a 72% chance to win it.