Detroit Pistons playoff chances
98% to make the playoffs.
The Pistons (3-0) make the playoffs in 98% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 94% in the top six and straight in, and 5% in the play-in. They finish about 55-27 on average. A win at the Knicks on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 99%; a loss, 96%.
The Pistons, 2026-27
Next game
At the Knicks, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 56% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 99%; lose and it is 96%.
The rest of the East
Celtics 88%, Hawks 86%, Raptors 78%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Hornets 66%, Magic 53%, Heat 38%, Pacers 28%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Pistons' chances of making the playoffs?
The Pistons (3-0) make the playoffs in 98% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 94% in the top six and straight in, and 5% in the play-in. They finish about 55-27 on average. A win at the Knicks on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 99%; a loss, 96%.
Can the Pistons win the NBA title?
In 16% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 33% and win a playoff round in 75%.
How much does the Pistons' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 99%; lose and it is 96%. The model gives them a 56% chance to win it.