Miami Heat playoff chances
38% to make the playoffs.
The Heat (0-3) make the playoffs in 38% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 20% in the top six and straight in, and 39% in the play-in. They finish about 37-45 on average. A win over the Mavericks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 44%; a loss, 30%.
The Heat, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Mavericks, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 61% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 44%; lose and it is 30%.
The rest of the East
Pistons 98%, Celtics 88%, Hawks 86%, Raptors 78%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Hornets 66%, Magic 53%, Pacers 28%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Heat's chances of making the playoffs?
The Heat (0-3) make the playoffs in 38% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 20% in the top six and straight in, and 39% in the play-in. They finish about 37-45 on average. A win over the Mavericks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 44%; a loss, 30%.
Can the Heat win the NBA title?
In 1% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 2% and win a playoff round in 14%.
How much does the Heat's next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 44%; lose and it is 30%. The model gives them a 61% chance to win it.