Indiana Pacers playoff chances
28% to make the playoffs.
The Pacers (2-1) make the playoffs in 28% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 13% in the top six and straight in, and 34% in the play-in. They finish about 35-47 on average. A win at the Bucks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 34%; a loss, 21%.
The Pacers, 2026-27
Next game
At the Bucks, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 47% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 34%; lose and it is 21%.
The rest of the East
Pistons 98%, Celtics 88%, Hawks 86%, Raptors 78%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Hornets 66%, Magic 53%, Heat 38%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Pacers' chances of making the playoffs?
The Pacers (2-1) make the playoffs in 28% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 13% in the top six and straight in, and 34% in the play-in. They finish about 35-47 on average. A win at the Bucks on Monday, October 26 would put them at 34%; a loss, 21%.
Can the Pacers win the NBA title?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 1% and win a playoff round in 7%.
How much does the Pacers' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 34%; lose and it is 21%. The model gives them a 47% chance to win it.