Atlanta Hawks playoff chances
86% to make the playoffs.
The Hawks (2-1) make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 75% in the top six and straight in, and 20% in the play-in. They finish about 48-34 on average. A win at the Rockets on Monday, October 26 would put them at 91%; a loss, 84%.
The Hawks, 2026-27
Next game
At the Rockets, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 39% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 91%; lose and it is 84%.
The rest of the East
Pistons 98%, Celtics 88%, Raptors 78%, 76ers 74%, Cavaliers 71%, Knicks 66%, Hornets 66%, Magic 53%, Heat 38%, Pacers 28%. Every team: NBA playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its scoring margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home court (2.2 points) and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the regular season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; the two NBA Cup games not yet scheduled are played against an average club. Each conference is seeded on wins (ties are a coin flip), 7 to 10 play the play-in, and every playoff round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Hawks' chances of making the playoffs?
The Hawks (2-1) make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. That is 75% in the top six and straight in, and 20% in the play-in. They finish about 48-34 on average. A win at the Rockets on Monday, October 26 would put them at 91%; a loss, 84%.
Can the Hawks win the NBA title?
In 5% of simulations. They reach the NBA Finals in 13% and win a playoff round in 50%.
How much does the Hawks' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 91%; lose and it is 84%. The model gives them a 39% chance to win it.