Vegas Golden Knights playoff chances
80% to make the playoffs.
The Golden Knights (8-4-1, 17 points) make the playoffs in 80% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 28% of the time and finish with about 102 points on average. A win over the Senators on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 84%; a loss, 75%.
The Golden Knights, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Senators, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 52% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 84%; lose and it is 75%.
The rest of the West
Oilers 89%, Stars 87%, Wild 85%, Avalanche 83%, Mammoth 78%, Kraken 59%, Predators 46%, Blues 43%, Sharks 43%, Jets 35%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Golden Knights' chances of making the playoffs?
The Golden Knights (8-4-1, 17 points) make the playoffs in 80% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 28% of the time and finish with about 102 points on average. A win over the Senators on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 84%; a loss, 75%.
Can the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup?
In 5% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 10% and win a playoff round in 45%.
How much does the Golden Knights' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 84%; lose and it is 75%. The model gives them a 52% chance to win it.