Vancouver Canucks playoff chances
1% to make the playoffs.
The Canucks (2-10-1, 5 points) make the playoffs in 1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish with about 63 points on average. A win at the Ducks on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 2%; a loss, 1%.
The Canucks, 2026-27
Next game
At the Ducks, Tue, Oct 27. The model gives them 37% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 2%; lose and it is 1%.
The rest of the West
Oilers 89%, Stars 87%, Wild 85%, Avalanche 83%, Golden Knights 80%, Mammoth 78%, Kraken 59%, Predators 46%, Blues 43%, Sharks 43%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Canucks' chances of making the playoffs?
The Canucks (2-10-1, 5 points) make the playoffs in 1% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division <1% of the time and finish with about 63 points on average. A win at the Ducks on Tuesday, October 27 would put them at 2%; a loss, 1%.
Can the Canucks win the Stanley Cup?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in <1% and win a playoff round in 1%.
How much does the Canucks' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 2%; lose and it is 1%. The model gives them a 37% chance to win it.