Calgary Flames playoff chances
11% to make the playoffs.
The Flames (4-6-0, 8 points) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish with about 75 points on average. A win over the Maple Leafs on Monday, October 26 would put them at 16%; a loss, 9%.
The Flames, 2026-27
Next game
Home to the Maple Leafs, Mon, Oct 26. The model gives them 40% to win it. Win and their playoff chance is 16%; lose and it is 9%.
The rest of the West
Oilers 89%, Stars 87%, Wild 85%, Avalanche 83%, Golden Knights 80%, Mammoth 78%, Kraken 59%, Predators 46%, Blues 43%, Sharks 43%. Every team: NHL playoff odds.
Each club is rated by its goal margin this season against the schedule it played, adjusted for home ice and started from last season's rating, which counts for less as the season's games add up. The rest of the 84-game season is played 10,000 times, with each club's rating redrawn within its uncertainty every time; about one game in four goes past regulation and the loser takes a point. The field is the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference, ranked on points, then regulation wins, then wins, and every round is played out best of seven. A forecast from the scores, not the betting market.
Questions
What are the Flames' chances of making the playoffs?
The Flames (4-6-0, 8 points) make the playoffs in 11% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They win the division 1% of the time and finish with about 75 points on average. A win over the Maple Leafs on Monday, October 26 would put them at 16%; a loss, 9%.
Can the Flames win the Stanley Cup?
In <1% of simulations. They reach the Stanley Cup Final in 1% and win a playoff round in 4%.
How much does the Flames' next game matter?
Win and their playoff chance is 16%; lose and it is 9%. The model gives them a 40% chance to win it.