Mason Miller leads MLB in expected ERA

1.70

Mason Miller

1.67 ERA

4.11

League average

2.41 below the league average of 4.11. The ERA a pitcher's contact allowed, strikeouts and walks should have produced. Lower is better. On its own a figure is only a size, which is why the league's number sits beside it.

Expected ERA, MLB, 2026 season: top 25

#	The rest of the board	Expected ERA	Detail
1	Mason Miller 1.67 ERA	1.70	1.67 ERA
2	Jhoan Duran 1.82 ERA	2.06	1.82 ERA
3	Jacob Misiorowski 1.80 ERA	2.13	1.80 ERA
4	Adrian Morejon 2.83 ERA	2.34	2.83 ERA
5	Louis Varland 1.27 ERA	2.37	1.27 ERA
6	Bradgley Rodriguez 2.19 ERA	2.37	2.19 ERA
7	Juan Morillo 2.24 ERA	2.45	2.24 ERA
8	Edgardo Henriquez 2.85 ERA	2.47	2.85 ERA
9	Max Fried 2.80 ERA	2.51	2.80 ERA
10	Mason Montgomery 2.88 ERA	2.53	2.88 ERA
11	Erik Sabrowski 2.61 ERA	2.62	2.61 ERA
12	Dylan Lee 3.09 ERA	2.64	3.09 ERA
13	Trevor Megill 2.63 ERA	2.64	2.63 ERA
14	Aroldis Chapman 1.92 ERA	2.64	1.92 ERA
15	Jacob Latz 2.13 ERA	2.66	2.13 ERA
16	Alex Vesia 2.64 ERA	2.68	2.64 ERA
17	Payton Tolle 3.03 ERA	2.70	3.03 ERA
18	Logan Henderson 2.47 ERA	2.74	2.47 ERA
19	Shohei Ohtani · Los Angeles Dodgers 1.79 ERA	2.74	1.79 ERA
20	Abner Uribe 1.97 ERA	2.81	1.97 ERA
21	Jesús Luzardo 2.85 ERA	2.83	2.85 ERA
22	Cade Smith 1.95 ERA	2.83	1.95 ERA
23	Mason Fluharty 3.30 ERA	2.83	3.30 ERA
24	Cam Schlittler 1.95 ERA	2.85	1.95 ERA
25	Jonathan Bowlan 3.35 ERA	2.85	3.35 ERA

Source: Baseball Savant (Statcast), 2026 season. Baseball Savant's qualified players, ranked by Savant lowest first, since lower is better; the league average is Savant's own. The lead is 2.8 standard deviations (sd) above the field, estimated from Savant's percentiles: the unit the directory ranks leads by, because it lets a rate and a speed share one list. Measured Oct 5, 1:33 PM ET (Oct 5, 1:33 PM ET); the boards refresh twice a day.